1X hobby of 2022 Bowman

[Iron Clad Lou]

How bad is the Cherry MLB stock currently? I haven't see it this depleted since I started purchasing from them in April last year. They have not had new wax for sale since 2022 Bowman Draft(which some clever folks look to have snaffled up recently).

I would've thought Australia's largest hobby store could get their hands on more than just a case or two for breaks. Also, last night I noticed they had for sale jumbos of Topps 2020 Update, which is the worst product in the last 6 years and has zero rookies to chase ,and jumbos of 2021 Topps Series 1 which is only marginally better. However, neither are listed today. I refuse to believe anyone bought that stuff which would be expensive at half the cost.

What's going on man? Looks like I'm going back to Steel City and BO. Wish I'd bought the 2022 Bowman Draft when I had the cash. If it weren't for Ohtani, Holliday would be front and center. Did you grab the last of it?

Anyway, it's pretty grim and I'm genuinely surprised that Topps( Fanatics) has done this.

See all the Upper Deck hockey these days?

They defo lost the Fanatics account and are now Upper Deck exclusive breakers

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Yep they are loaded with it. Great if you're into hockey. Not so good if you love baseball.

I can't win. I bought a case of Upper Deck 2021-22 S2 early this year with the intention of keeping it sealed for 1 maybe 2 years. I got it at $100 per box. It's now going for $75 per box meaning I've lost $250 on the case already. I think we are at a stage where 100% of all hockey wax will go down after release. There is way too much of it relative to the size of the hobby. There is other wax I'm tempted to buy a case of but it's almost certainly going to keep falling so why do it?

Cherry are pre-selling 2023-24 S2 ( Bedard) for $250AUD a box which is too expensive imo. The print runs are already stupid but they will double from 2022-23 to 2023-24 thanks to Bedard. And given UD SP the better hits it will be really hard to hit his YG from a loose box. Idiots will pay $500 USD for his base Young Guns out the gate but he will have at least 5 x-10x more base Young Guns than McDavid. McDavid's go for around $1000USD which should put Bedard at $200. A case will set you back 3K AUD and it will almost certainly only have 1X Bedard base YG and if you're lucky his canvas YG but they may hold that back for Extended. The hobby for all wax is just crazy now. A genuine waste of money - whether you open it or sit on it.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Yep they are loaded with it. Great if you're into hockey. Not so good if you love baseball.

I can't win. I bought a case of Upper Deck 2021-22 S2 early this year with the intention of keeping it sealed for 1 maybe 2 years. I got it at $100 per box. It's now going for $75 per box meaning I've lost $250 on the case already. I think we are at a stage where 100% of all hockey wax will go down after release. There is way too much of it relative to the size of the hobby. There is other wax I'm tempted to buy a case of but it's almost certainly going to keep falling so why do it?

Cherry are pre-selling 2023-24 S2 ( Bedard) for $250AUD a box which is too expensive imo. The print runs are already stupid but they will double from 2022-23 to 2023-24 thanks to Bedard. And given UD SP the better hits it will be really hard to hit his YG from a loose box. Idiots will pay $500 USD for his base Young Guns out the gate but he will have at least 5 x-10x more base Young Guns than McDavid. McDavid's go for around $1000USD which should put Bedard at $200. A case will set you back 3K AUD and it will almost certainly only have 1X Bedard base YG and if you're lucky his canvas YG but they may hold that back for Extended. The hobby for all wax is just crazy now. A genuine waste of money - whether you open it or sit on it.

Hockey going through the NBA shit.

Definitely buy singles eh, especially of the young guns.

At least you've got Cherry to break with

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Haven't been in a break for 6 weeks. Didn't get a card in my last 2 breaks and I'm done with it. I'm also done with epack but mostly because the exchange rate is horrible and it's 30% cheaper to buy a box here as opposed to on there. I'm concentrating on completing my 1974-75 opc set and 1981 VFL set. That's it.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Haven't been in a break for 6 weeks. Didn't get a card in my last 2 breaks and I'm done with it. I'm also done with epack but mostly because the exchange rate is horrible and it's 30% cheaper to buy a box here as opposed to on there. I'm concentrating on completing my 1974-75 opc set and 1981 VFL set. That's it.

Excellent to hear. I've been in four since July.

2023 Bowman Chrome. Hit a good true gold prospect and got a bunch of numbered.

I'm now going to be extremely picky about my breaks and they'll be few and far between.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

@ozsportscardcollector I might bring the RV collection home one of these days.

I still have a problem

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

@ozsportscardcollector How's Bedard?

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

He looks the part. I watched some highlights from the pre-season and he's incredible given his age. The hype is justified. The main concern from a hobby pov is that he will have 5X-10X the rc's that McDavid has and yet fomo will see them priced much higher than they should be. He does look like the best player to enter the league since McDavid who is tracking to be one of the all time best.

Exciting season coming up.

Just starting to get some bets on. I like Vegas to repeat and Boston are at 18-1 with the WA TAB which are crazy odds given they were the best team last year and were bounced out by Florida in the last minute of game 7 when Florida equalised and then won in OT. Had Boston won that series they could have gone the whole way.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

What sealed stuff should I get?

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I can't recommend anything as all of it seems to be dropping after release. It may go back up again but nothing in the last three years has held its value. Even wax from 2019-20( Makar,Hughes) has dropped 50% from its peak in 2021/22. It's still up 3X from release but that's not the case with anything that released after that year. All of it has dropped after release or gone up so marginally that it's not worth the risk imo.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I can't recommend anything as all of it seems to be dropping after release. It may go back up again but nothing in the last two years has held its value. Even wax from 2019-20( Makar,Hughes) has dropped 50% from its peak in 2021/22. It's still up 3X from release but that's not the case with anything that released after that year. All of it has dropped after release or gone up so marginally that it's not worth the risk imo.

I am thinking because of 2015-16 stuff.

If he's like McDavid, surely his stuff will rise

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Except print runs are at least 5X McDavid. CHerry has sold out pre-sell UD S2 and that was $300 per box which is a crazy price. Normall UD hockey sells for $170 and then drops. Buying it at $300 and hoping to double your money in 3-4 years seems totally not worth it - and that's if the guy pans out, which he should. Print runs have killed it imo.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Except print runs are at least 5X McDavid. CHerry has sold out pre-sell UD S2 and that was $300 per box which is a crazy price. Normall UD hockey sells for $170 and then drops. Buying it at $300 and hoping to double your money in 3-4 years seems totally not worth it - and that's if the guy pans out, which he should. Print runs have killed it imo.

Cherry had it for 250, then raised the price but never released any at 300.

I am waiting for that.

I am thinking 2 boxes of Game Used, for the Jersey # RC base

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

OK. I just looked today and it says $300 presell and out of stock. I'm really not the one to dish out advice on sealed stuff - especially not on products I know little about like SP Game Used. I've broken it in the past and its brutal. In short I'm very pessimistic on sealed wax as an investment. Singles would still be better presumably. Upper Deck are going to milk 2023-24. The print run has gone up significantly again on last year with flagship and they will do this to all their products. I'm really close to pulling the pin and saving my cash.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

OK. I just looked today and it says $300 presell and out of stock. I'm really not the one to dish out advice on sealed stuff - especially not on products I know little about like SP Game Used. I've broken it in the past and its brutal. In short I'm very pessimistic on sealed wax as an investment. Singles would still be better presumably. Upper Deck are going to milk 2023-24. The print run has gone up significantly again on last year with flagship and they will do this to all their products. I'm really close to pulling the pin and saving my cash.

I am looking at getting a couple of the big release to sit on

If he is next Gretzky, ill sell it in the US/Canada. If he's Jack Hughes, ill rip em

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

There has been a bunch of Bowman Chrome breaks on Cherry, that I have been really strong and avoided buying into.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

S2 up now at $350 a box. Hard parse

Edit: no, its still out of stock but price gone up.

Never got an email saying its back in stock.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

S2 up now at $350 a box. Hard parse

Edit: no, its still out of stock but price gone up.

Never got an email saying its back in stock.

Ok @ozsportscardcollector back up at $400!

hahaha

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I bought 3 boxes of SP Game Used.

No way that opens in the US at $175US and the true RC looks like a good investment seeing McDavid's GU price

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Yeah they are taking the absolute piss at $400 a throw and they have your money for close to 5 months. Very greedy move. I just pre-ordered S1 ar $200 which is about USD prices but I'm expecting that to drop as more and more of it becomes available. Every UD Hockey products since 2020-21 S2 has dropped after release. That's 2020-21 Extended( complete trash which has lost 70% of its value). And then the next 6 releases after that 2021-22 S1,S2( my case, lol, lost 50% of it's value) Extended and 2022-23 S1, S2 and Extended.

Good luck with the SP Game Used. I loathe that product only because it's a really tough rip. Also has mostly stickers autos blah blah. That's just my opinion. The productd does have a solid fan base though and it's popular. I'm no expert but if you are buying hockey wax for investment purposes I would buy SPA and The Cup. The latter is expensive but it's the undisputed no.1 brand and because it's expensive it only needs to go up by 50% and you make decent profit. The real risk at the moment with sealed high end wax is if UD make Bedard a redemption. Pre-sell is available way before a checklist comes out and that's a massive problem.

2021-22 SPA is almost guaranteed to bust even if the crop eventually excels because most of the best names are time sensitive redemptions.

I doubt they would do it with Bedard but always keep in mind that the manufacturers don't give 2 cents for collectors. They are trying to extract max value in the shortest period possible - knowing that their exclusive licence may not get renewed.

Big rant. I just saw the Cherry price and had to come on here but you well and truly beat me to it. I might even wait for S2 to hit epack. It will be cheaper than $400AUD.