1X hobby of 2022 Bowman

[Iron Clad Lou]

Yeah they are taking the absolute piss at $400 a throw and they have your money for close to 5 months. Very greedy move. I just pre-ordered S1 ar $200 which is about USD prices but I'm expecting that to drop as more and more of it becomes available. Every UD Hockey products since 2020-21 S2 has dropped after release. That's 2020-21 Extended( complete trash which has lost 70% of its value. And then the next 6 releases after that 2021-22 S1,S2( my case, lol) Extended and 2022-23 S1, S2 and Extended.

Good luck with the SP Game Used. I loathe that product only because it's a really tough rip. Also has mostly stickers autos blah blah. That's just my opinion. The productd does have a solid fan base though and it's popular. I'm no expert but if you are buying hockey wax for investment purposes I would buy SPA and The Cup. The latter is expensive but it's the undisputed no.1 brand and. The real risk at the moment with sealed high end wax is if UD make Bedard a redemption. Pre-sell is available way before a checklist comes out and that's a massive problem.

2021-22 SPA is almost guaranteed to bust even if the crop excels because most of the best names are redemptions.

I doubt they would do it with Bedard but always keep in mind that the manufacturers don't give 2 cents for collectors. They are trying to extraxt max value in the shortest period possible - knowing that their exclusive licence may not get renewed.

Big rant. I just saw the Cherry price and had to come on here but you well and truly beat me to it. I might even wait for S2 to hit epack. It will be cheaper than $400AUD.

Oh, and after I bought those 3 boxes...

Out of stock! I have not seen a preorder in the US for SP Game Used, but expect it will be around 350US.

SPA and The Cup will definitely be on my list. If prices are not ridiculous, I will try buying one of each 23/24 product he is in and just sit on it

In terms of other years, everything seems so cheap! I am going to save up and buy a bunch to rip for fun! Blasters, Hobby you name it. Not really looking for anything good

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I didn't realise it was only $275 AUD. That's a crazy low price. Maybe they realise they messed up and will now overcompensate. That's a no brainer at $275AUD.SPG should be at double flagship. Your boxes should be $800 already!

My guess is they release at anywhere between $300USD and $400USD. A bit depends on how he performs between now and then. That's another factor that is an unknown.

$275AUD, lol. Bargain!!!!

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

I'd like to splurge on wax but my last 5 boxes were overall disappointing and that because of QC. Every YG in those 5 boxes is ungradeable.

UD is the worst in terms of QC.

I might buy one more case if I can get the funds together but that will be it for a while. I've spent a small fortune on wax in the past 6 years - especially in 2018 and 2019.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I didn't realise it was only $275 AUD. That's a crazy low price. Maybe they realise they messed up and will now overcompensate. That's a no brainer at $275AUD.SPG should be at double flagship. Your boxes should be $800 already!

My guess is they release at anywhere between $300USD and $400USD. A bit depends on how he performs between now and then. That's another factor that is an unknown.

$275AUD, lol. Bargain!!!!

LOL Looking at steel city though for 2015/16 (hoping the same trajectory)

The Cup - $6,000US
SPA - $4,000US
SP Game Used - 850US

Hoping that the bigger boxes come out here cheaper, but wouldn't surprise me seeing The Cup at $1500 and SPA for $1000.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I'd like to splurge on wax but my last 5 boxes were overall disappointing and that because of QC. Every YG in those 5 boxes is ungradeable.

UD is the worst in terms of QC.

I might buy one more case if I can get the funds together but that will be it for a while. I've spent a small fortune on wax in the past 6 years - especially in 2018 and 2019.

That's why you buy boxes and then sell it to people to open themselves!


Will be hard to sell to Canada/US, but could consign or flip back to big retailers

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

LOL Looking at steel city though for 2015/16 (hoping the same trajectory)

The Cup - $6,000US
SPA - $4,000US
SP Game Used - 850US

Hoping that the bigger boxes come out here cheaper, but wouldn't surprise me seeing The Cup at $1500 and SPA for $1000.

2020-21 The Cup came out here at close to $1500AUD from memory. 2023-24( probably released in 2025 will be 3K AUD for sure. It usually releases in the US for 1K so it will be double. However, 2021-22 The Cup has yet to be released so they still have to release that and 2022-23. Maybe 2026!

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

2020-21 The Cup came out here at close to $1500AUD from memory. 2023-24( probably released in 2025 will be 3K AUD for sure. It usually releases in the US for 1K so it will be double. However, 2021-22 The Cup has yet to be released so they still have to release that and 2022-23. Maybe 2026!

Yeah i forgot about that. If it's 3k I am out.

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

LOL Looking at steel city though for 2015/16 (hoping the same trajectory)

The Cup - $6,000US
SPA - $4,000US
SP Game Used - 850US

Hoping that the bigger boxes come out here cheaper, but wouldn't surprise me seeing The Cup at $1500 and SPA for $1000.

Yes that would be nice if you go that way. Just looking at that those prices are down from peak. That's another tricky thing. You have to try and time it. Often wax will go up 3X -6X and then start to come back down. People who bought 2016 Bowman chrome at peak would be borderline suicidal.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Yes that would be nice if you go that way. Just looking at that those prices are down from peak. That's another tricky thing. You have to try and time it. Often wax will go up 3X -6X and then start to come back down. People who bought 2016 Bowman chrome at peak would be borderline suicidal.

Yep. Buy it in 2016 when it was free

Hockey still isn't too bad but this will break the Hobby's back

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Yes that would be nice if you go that way. Just looking at that those prices are down from peak. That's another tricky thing. You have to try and time it. Often wax will go up 3X -6X and then start to come back down. People who bought 2016 Bowman chrome at peak would be borderline suicidal.

I'd almost bet on it being 3K AUD. Maybe higher. Still if it goes up a modest 30% you're good. If it does 3X you're flying.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I'd almost bet on it being 3K AUD. Maybe higher. Still if it goes up a modest 30% you're good. If it does 3X you're flying.

I'll be trying hard for a cheap preorder. 1k and I'd break the bad news to the missus later

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Yep. Buy it in 2016 when it was free

Hockey still isn't too bad but this will break the Hobby's back

People who bought prior to covid made and continue to make a killing. However, 2016 Bowman chrome case was selling for forty grand USD at one point when Soto but especially Tatis and Vlad were hot in 2021 early 2022. It must now be down 70% from peak. But yes if you bought in 2016 you were laughing.

I think that 2020/21 was a once in a lifetime thing. People who say that another boom will happen are either deluded or grifters. Overproduction will ensure it can't. And we are never going into lockdown again and handing out free money. In hindsight it was so easy to put 90% of what fuelled the boom down to those two things.

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

People who bought prior to covid made and continue to make a killing. However, 2016 BCA was selling for forty grand USD at one point when Soto but especially Tatis and Vlad were hot in 2021 early 2022. It must now be down 70% from peak. But yes if you bought in 2016 you were laughing.

I think that 2020/21 was a once in a lifetime thing. People who say that another boom will happen are either deluded or grifters. Overproduction will ensure it can't. And we are never going into lockdown again and handing out free money. In hindsight it was so easy to put 90% of what fuelled the boom down to those two things.

Did you see that bloke's stash of sealed stuff on Blowout? Fucking hell. Should have sold in 2020

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

No. I haven't looked on there for months. There are some huge sealed wax collectors over there. 2018-19 Prizm basketball is the product that comes to mind readily when I think of peak and where it is now. I watched Laytons break a hobby box of it in late 2021 for 8K or 9K USD. That's life changing money if you bought lots of cases of it at release. It's probably at $1500 these days and guaranteed to drop further. Crazy stuff

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

No. I haven't looked on there for months. There are some huge sealed wax collectors over there. 2018-19 Prizm basketball is the product that comes to mind readily when I think of peak and where it is now. I watched Laytons break a hobby box of it in late 2021 for 8K or 9K USD. That's life changing money if you bought lots of cases of it at release. It's probably at $1500 these days and guaranteed to drop further. Crazy stuff

$4300 now. Bloke has like 10 boxes.

I remember in 2020 seeing old links in AU for that product. $150 a box hahahah

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

@ozsportscardcollector Before you go...head over to blowout and see my box breaks

LOL RUBBBISH

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I hope he works out for you. If he flies out the gate early next season I'd be tempted to grab the 2X 3X and move on.

I just took a 66% mauling on an Edgar Quero Bowman auto. Bought 50% below peak, held on, then he gets traded and the upside now looks minimal so better to take the loss and buy cards for my sets. Also, Cristian Santana from the Tigers has hurt me. The so called "gift that keeps on giving" that was 2021 Bowman Chrome is now looking like most Bowman Chrome releases - 95% of the checklist flopping. I hit Cristian Hernandez( the best prospect at release) in a hobby box from Cherry and at the time he was still fetching $200USD raw. His peak was $300USD. Instead of immediately selling the card I got it graded, got a PSA9 and he then proceeded to crap the bed. I haven't looked but the card might now be worth $50 USD max.

Again, hope Verdugo works out for you.

Gonna reply here

I am now of the belief any big hit has to be sold straight away. Doesn't matter, 99% of the time, you are going to come out ahead selling straight away. From now on, if i open a decent box, unless its something i really want, then its going straight away.

Re. Verdugo...its just a bit of fun. If it doesn't work out, its 5k down following a guy around minor baseball!

BTW, This was the U23 statline from the world cup. Impressive.

View attachment 509439

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Just the 5K!. Well now I really hope he works out. I thought you'd spent about a Jumbo hobby box worth. That's impressive.

I've lost my Bowman prospecting touch. Probably never had it anyway .

I'm going to focus on AFL next year. Last season rejuvenated my love for the sport and I may as well have that roll back into cards.

P.S. Can't believe the boxes of 2023-24 SP Game Used are still available presell for $300AUD!. Can't go wrong if you don't open it. $400 for S2 though is nuts. Lots to go wrong if you do that as an investment.

Cheers!

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

Just the 5K!. Well now I really hope he works out. I thought you'd spent about a Jumbo hobby box worth. That's impressive.

I've lost my Bowman prospecting touch. Probably never had it anyway .

I'm going to focus on AFL next year. Last season rejuvenated my love for the sport and I may as well have that roll back into cards.

P.S. Can't believe the boxes of 2023-24 SP Game Used are still available presell for $300AUD!. Can't go wrong if you don't open it. $400 for S2 though is nuts. Lots to go wrong if you do that as an investment.

Cheers!

LOL I have about 150 autos now. Maybe more.

I am collecting his pro debut rainbow as well. Only the 1/1s away from completing that

Yeah i won't get any more game used. I might save up for the bigger releases

 

[Dodgydave]

I am now of the belief any big hit has to be sold straight away. Doesn't matter, 99% of the time, you are going to come out ahead selling straight away. From now on, if i open a decent box, unless its something i really want, then its going straight away.

If you are prospecting is this not just true by definition?

The vast majority of prospects, even good ones, will not work out. Thus, if they are a "big hit" they are most likely at the peak of their value and should be sold. In most cases once a prospect reaches "big hit" territory, especially, if they are still a long way from the majors, the card can only go down — or at least will experience periods where it is down from its "big hit" value.

Should you not be fading the "big hit" guys and buying guys you like, who for whatever reason (poor recent performance, injury, not a big name prospect) are not the "big hits".

(Of course, I'm not a baseball collector so actually have no idea what I am talking about!)