Does anyone get involved in statistics for players/breaks/anything?

[Warriordazza]

Hey all,

So I'm relatively new into the game, but as soon as I started I knew I wanted to get involved my way through understanding prices vs statistics.
So I made an excel and started with the past 3 years of rookie players and the growth in games, minutes and points. From that I found those performing better and grabbed their individual player data from nba and then their silver prizm prices, prizm base prices, and optic bases prices from pwcc. It tracks monthly prices vs player performance so I can see.
Another one I've made is for group breaks, cause I always saw them as a bad gamble. I started writing everything but realized it maybe to confusing. So long story short I get the excel set lists for releases of cardboard connection, put that into the sheet and get data for teams, players and rough valued amounts for each to each release.

My question is does anyone else get involved like this? I actually havent bought that many cards as of yet and haven't got involved in any group breaks as I find this part of the journey quite intriguing.
Also if anyone does Id be interested to hear their methodologies and sources of information, and I'm always happy to share the love with my homemade sheets.


Peace

 

[TheCardExperience]

I’m not a very good stats man but from my short experiences of buying packs, breaks and singles I’ve learnt what works best for me and that’s taking the gambling aspect out of it and buy the cards I want.

This is unique to me because I don’t mind spending the money and I understand not everyone can. I can choose to buy graded or find undervalued cards and even trade for them.

With breaks, it’s fun yes when you hit a good team but then you still need to hit a card in that break. The amount of times a Pels spot in a break just makes their money back is kind of sad too.
I often think if I had of just saved my break money I could buy a box of my choice.

Buying boxes is probably the most fun because you get to handle the cards and for a moment that box is worth exactly what you paid for it, as soon as you drive that car out of the dealership it’s lost it’s value though This one is also the most deflating after a hitless box

Buy the cards you want kids and only break or bust boxes for fun.

I’d be keen to hear what your stats say. I’m guessing similar to my experiences.

 

[cardfund]

Always interested in statistics

If you hadn't already, I'd suggesting looking the content distribution of performance - i.e the amount of content being generated around that player as a result of their performance. For example I'd imagine a Luka triple double will generate a significant amount more amount of content than say a Shai triple double.

Luka could also have a statistically terrible game compared to Shai but have a look away pass or rainbow 3 that could result in having a more positive effect on his price compared to Shai and his great game.

I think a cool case study is devonte graham. He had a stretch where he was on fire, actually I think from like the 4th or 5th game onwards til recently. Night after night he would crank out really good performances but his card prices didn't move in-line. I think he really took off when he torched the Knicks and hit a game winner. If I remember correctly that performance wasn't too much of a deviation statistically from his usual but the amount of content it generated was significant and his card prices increased as a consequence.

 

[Warriordazza]

Cool, as with anything take what I write with multiple grains of salt as I'm just learning and doing what I think is correct.
I've attached Luka and Devonte, which are both players I had already done based on how I saw the statistical improvements year on year. Attached is their individual graphs showing price vs their mins/pts/reb/ast

Base Optic	Base Optic	Prizm Base	Prizm Base	Silver Prizm Base	Silver Prizm Base
Volume	Price	Volume	Price	Volume	Price
16.79	$ 19.18	70.82	$ 37.97	90.76	$ 297.06

Base Optic	Base Optic	Prizm Base	Prizm Base	Silver Prizm Base	Silver Prizm Base
Volume	Price	Volume	Price	Volume	Price
2.00	$ 1.43	11.17	$ 5.51	44.65	$ 12.30

 

[Warriordazza]

Always interested in statistics

If you hadn't already, I'd suggesting looking the content distribution of performance - i.e the amount of content being generated around that player as a result of their performance. For example I'd imagine a Luka triple double will generate a significant amount more amount of content than say a Shai triple double.

Luka could also have a statistically terrible game compared to Shai but have a look away pass or rainbow 3 that could result in having a more positive effect on his price compared to Shai and his great game.

I think a cool case study is devonte graham. He had a stretch where he was on fire, actually I think from like the 4th or 5th game onwards til recently. Night after night he would crank out really good performances but his card prices didn't move in-line. I think he really took off when he torched the Knicks and hit a game winner. If I remember correctly that performance wasn't too much of a deviation statistically from his usual but the amount of content it generated was significant and his card prices increased as a consequence.

I'd love to find a way to do this as well, I originally thought of tracking social media, instagram followers, instagram tags and twitter followers but saw that as an intensive labour ATM. What do you think would be a reasonable and accurate measure to track this?

 

[Warriordazza]

I’m not a very good stats man but from my short experiences of buying packs, breaks and singles I’ve learnt what works best for me and that’s taking the gambling aspect out of it and buy the cards I want.

This is unique to me because I don’t mind spending the money and I understand not everyone can. I can choose to buy graded or find undervalued cards and even trade for them.

With breaks, it’s fun yes when you hit a good team but then you still need to hit a card in that break. The amount of times a Pels spot in a break just makes their money back is kind of sad too.
I often think if I had of just saved my break money I could buy a box of my choice.

Buying boxes is probably the most fun because you get to handle the cards and for a moment that box is worth exactly what you paid for it, as soon as you drive that car out of the dealership it’s lost it’s value though This one is also the most deflating after a hitless box

Buy the cards you want kids and only break or bust boxes for fun.

I’d be keen to hear what your stats say. I’m guessing similar to my experiences.

Based of what I have done for box breaks, I have taken the release list (ie prizm) from cardboard connections, plugged that into excel which tells me how many cards for each team. Then for each team I list out players I believe that have value (IE rookies or allstars) and place a monetary value on them. I then get the number of cards for each player in that release and multiple the expected hit/box by their value I've placed. Then I multiply this vs the intrinsic value of the release (ie prizm rank higher, hoops lower etc). This gives me an end expected value if I were to be involved in that break for that release what is my expected value, then I add that up for all the releases in the break and see if it is below or under the cost. In all cases it is well below, but as of right now my $$ value per player and value per release is based of what I perceive as reasonable assumptions. I would look to increase accuracy with a few relative pricing researches.

I've attached the table below for prizm of 76ers players, obivously $$$ value is to be changed as need be but an example of how to read is in this years panini release I have the 76ers as my team. There are 572 cards for that team vs the 16838 cards in total in the release (this total is just the type of cards like base prizm blue ice but doesn't multiply vs how many cards it could be). This therefore means that if you get the 76ers you have a 3.4% chance of hitting cards in the release. If I was aiming for Matisse there are 64 types of his card, which represents 11.19% of the 76ers, and 0.38% in the box. I have placed a $20 generic value to his name and multiple that against the box% to see my expected value from him is $0.08(0.0076 rounded up) and after multiplying vs the value of Prizm I would expect $0.76 value for him, and $1.57 for getting the 76ers. If I were to buy into a break fro just a box of prizm for the 76ers I would need that cost to be less that $1.57 for me to find it worthy.
I can then do this for each team, then add the value total multiply vs the chance of getting a team (1/30) to see what my expected value is vs the actual break price.

NBA Boxes	Team	Cards/Team	Cards/Team %	NBA Players	$$$ Value	Cards/Player	Player/Team	Box*Player	Hit % * $ Value	Hit $ x Box Multiplier
19-20 Panini Prizm	76ers	572	3.40%	Matisse Thybulle	$ 20.00	64	11.19%	0.38%	$ 0.076	$ 0.76
19-20 Panini Prizm	76ers	572	3.40%	Zhaire Smith	$ 1.00	42	7.34%	0.25%	$ 0.00	$ 0.02
19-20 Panini Prizm	76ers	572	3.40%	Ben Simmons	$ 15.00	54	9.44%	0.32%	$ 0.05	$ 0.48
19-20 Panini Prizm	76ers	572	3.40%	Joel Embiid	$ 10.00	51	8.92%	0.30%	$ 0.03	$ 0.30
		16838				211.00		1.25%	$ 0.16	$ 1.57

What I realise is there is a tonne of assumptions and implied values but it's a starting point and it'll be refined further on. I'd love feedback on anything, and am happy to get told I'm doing it all wrong or doing something wrong (I take negative feedback well) so i can improve.

Ta
Dazza

 

[MattWasGF4L]

With the above box break stats does it factor in a rate for postage? That is, most include postage as part of the cost you have to pay to get in the break.

Also, and not sure how you would do it but there has to be a top team tax too for the random team breaks where you can’t buy the Mavs or Pelicans and that is done by random. It’s a way for the breaker to actually fill the break and not have teams sitting there when everyone gets a shot at getting the top team so there’s a premium built in to every team sold.

 

[c_davis]

Great topic. I am new to this part of the game so would be curious to know more.

 

[Warriordazza]

With the above box break stats does it factor in a rate for postage? That is, most include postage as part of the cost you have to pay to get in the break.

Also, and not sure how you would do it but there has to be a top team tax too for the random team breaks where you can’t buy the Mavs or Pelicans and that is done by random. It’s a way for the breaker to actually fill the break and not have teams sitting there when everyone gets a shot at getting the top team so there’s a premium built in to every team sold.

I dont factor in postage...yet. What I will do is at the end of the formulas put in a postage amount and its added to the total before vsing the break amount.

I guess my methodology for random's was around from what I have seen in my very short time random breaks are much more common. So I gather all the team values and add it and then multiply by my chance of hitting any one team in that group break (IE the cards involved).

'
Obviously this all depends on the different values I place but this example shows if it was a random break for 1 team it would not be matching the value where break =$60 +$10 postage. If I could buy just the pelicans or grizzlies there would be value.
(ps. this is under assumption vets of insignificance have no value as well, ie carroll from nets = 0 therefore not recorded)