Bets Made 17/18

[Southnet]

First time I've bet on the NBA, don't bet big or often but after listening to some Under/Over podcasts I thought I'd have a crack.

5 Leg Under/Over Multi - Odds are $19.89

76ers Under 40.5 - Lots of potential but completely unproven and still injury prone, hard to see them improving by 10 wins to hit this line

Rockets Over 55.5 - I think Paul and Harden will work straight away, plus the 3 point bomb strategy can see them having a great year, and they hit 55 wins last year without CP3.

Pistons Over 38.5 - Had everything go wrong last year and still got 37 wins due to solid coach. Should be some upside with Reggie J, Drummond and Avery Bradley.

Wolves Under 47.5 - Will improve but would need to jump by about 15 games on last year to break this line.

Jazz Over 40.5 - 51 wins last year, lost Hayward but that's a big fall to hit the line and they are a strong defensive side and hopefully Favors can stay on the floor, plus improvement from Hood and Exum and Gobert blocking out the Sun.

"Sure Thing" Bet - Odds $3.79

Warriors Champions - Just because they will be

OKC Win NorthWest Division - Have to beat the Wolves and the Nuggets and I think with Russ, PG and now Melo they will do that easily

Nuggets Make the Playoffs - Young guys (Harris, Murray, Mudiay) will improve on last year, Jokic is a gun, Millsap gives consistency and some Defence.


Feel free to comment, pick apart, etc, and if anyone else has laid some bets would be interested to hear.

 

[skip20]

Wolves seem to have a better balanced and deeper team than OKC imo, so my money would be on them provided that they stay injury free. They're gonna need an extra basketball in Thunder territory! Great players individually but they all need the ball in their hands and heavy usage, so it all hinges on how they mesh. Definitely capable of a Division title though.

 

[Glennmc]

Not a pistons fan but definitely like the over 38.5, think they have a better all round team this year to get more than 38.5.

Not sure about the wolves, with that team they should be getting over 47.5, but wouldn’t surprise to see them get under as they struggle to finish off tight games.

I like Cleveland under 54.5, finished with 51 last year but haven’t liked their pre season form( I know it’s only pre season) just have not liked what I’ve seen of them so far so happy to risk it.

 

[warriors_man]

5 Leg Under/Over Multi - Odds are $19.89

76ers Under 40.5 - Strongly agree

Rockets Over 55.5 - Agree

Pistons Over 38.5 - Strongly agree

Wolves Under 47.5 - Strongly agree

Jazz Over 40.5 - 50/50 call for me

"Sure Thing" Bet - Odds $3.79

Warriors Champions - Strongly agree

OKC Win NorthWest Division - Strongly agree

Nuggets Make the Playoffs - Agree

 

[Southnet]

Not a pistons fan but definitely like the over 38.5, think they have a better all round team this year to get more than 38.5.

Not sure about the wolves, with that team they should be getting over 47.5, but wouldn’t surprise to see them get under as they struggle to finish off tight games.

I like Cleveland under 54.5, finished with 51 last year but haven’t liked their pre season form( I know it’s only pre season) just have not liked what I’ve seen of them so far so happy to risk it.

Yes thought about Cavs but concerned that Lebron might be on amiss ion to win MVP so if that's the case he could just triple double them over the line himself.

 

[Southnet]

5 Leg Under/Over Multi - Odds are $19.89

76ers Under 40.5 - Strongly agree

Rockets Over 55.5 - Agree

Pistons Over 38.5 - Strongly agree

Wolves Under 47.5 - Strongly agree

Jazz Over 40.5 - 50/50 call for me

"Sure Thing" Bet - Odds $3.79

Warriors Champions - Strongly agree

OKC Win NorthWest Division - Strongly agree

Nuggets Make the Playoffs - Agree

Yes Jazz and Nuggets are my wobbly ones I think.

 

[exzibit3]

I put $130 on Ben Simmons at 4.0 odds to win ROY and the cash out is at $335 with his odds shortening to 1.45. Let it ride for $520 potential win or cash out just in case?

 

[exzibit3]

Also have a $30 bet on Aaron Gordon at 23.0 odds to win most improved player and cash out was around $200. Let it fly or cash out?

 

[Southnet]

Also have a $30 bet on Aaron Gordon at 23.0 odds to win most improved player and cash out was around $200. Let it fly or cash out?

I think the Gordon is a definite candidate to cash out at 6x value as this award can be really flukey. Simmons cash out will probably hold or steadily rise, maybe $400 is the magic number. If you cash the Gordon then your Simmons bet is covered so you could let that ride. Good bets by you.

 

[drobfan8]

Also have a $30 bet on Aaron Gordon at 23.0 odds to win most improved player and cash out was around $200. Let it fly or cash out?

I think that one is a hold. He looks terrific.

 

[drobfan8]

I threw $30 down on Giannis before the season for MVP at 10 to 1 odds. My only regret was not laying more down. After 1 game he was 6 to 1 and he's now the red hot favourite.

I think Philly are gonna go very close to the line. I'm thinking under also. They're not quite ready.

 

[Southnet]

I've put $10 on Curry at 15, but I need Giannis to calm the hell down!

 

[exzibit3]

I think the Gordon is a definite candidate to cash out at 6x value as this award can be really flukey. Simmons cash out will probably hold or steadily rise, maybe $400 is the magic number. If you cash the Gordon then your Simmons bet is covered so you could let that ride. Good bets by you.

Simmons has shortened to 1.17 (early cash out is up to $422 now) and next candidate is at 1 to 10 odds so it looks like a virtual lock for ROY. Only thing that will derail his campaign is a season ending injury (gulp!).

 

[Southnet]

Simmons has shortened to 1.17 (early cash out is up to $422 now) and next candidate is at 1 to 10 odds so it looks like a virtual lock for ROY. Only thing that will derail his campaign is a season ending injury (gulp!).

Risking $290 winnings to get an extra $100, stats say you should cash, but the betting mob may pay out early anyway to stop people backing him.

 

[exzibit3]

Risking $290 winnings to get an extra $100, stats say you should cash, but the betting mob may pay out early anyway to stop people backing him.

If this was like 60 games into the season, I'd comfortably let it ride because he looks like an absolute stud and sure lock in for ROY. Plays with patience, best passer in this years rookies, shoots a high percentage, rebounds well. And he just looks more and more comfortable as he plays. But 74 games is a long time to wait out for $100 and I don't forsee them paying out early until there's zero chance of the other rookies winning it. Cash out it is I think.

 

[exzibit3]

I'm not entirely convinced that Giannis will win MVP based on his team's win rate. Bucks are under .500 for the season. I do see value in putting in a flier bet in Kyrie though at 1-18 odds. The narrative for Kyrie is strong in that after Hayward went down for the season, not many thought that Boston would be in contention, let alone be leading the East.

 

[Southnet]

And Kyrie is second in Steals, what are his odds for defensive player of the year!! I'm liking my quiet bet on Curry, but if the Cavs start to work it out the Lebron story will grow, his numbers are very good again.

 

[drobfan8]

I'm not entirely convinced that Giannis will win MVP based on his team's win rate. Bucks are under .500 for the season. I do see value in putting in a flier bet in Kyrie though at 1-18 odds. The narrative for Kyrie is strong in that after Hayward went down for the season, not many thought that Boston would be in contention, let alone be leading the East.

I completely agree.
He'll need MIL to be over .500 by 10 games at least. I felt it was money for Jam after week 1 but the losses are piling up.

Funny you mention Kyrie, I took him yesterday at those odds. They'r looking like the 1 seed.

 

[exzibit3]

It was going to be difficult for Giannis to keep up his crazy pace in stats, and a lot of it is to do with the Bucks other 20ppg scorer, Jabari, out of action until February.

Harden has jumped to the favourite to win MVP after today's crazy stat line and their record. The narrative is pretty strong for Harden as well, given CP3's injury but I think his stats will be dropping significantly once he gets back and I don't see Houston getting more than the 3-4th seed.

 

[Southnet]

First time I've bet on the NBA, don't bet big or often but after listening to some Under/Over podcasts I thought I'd have a crack.

5 Leg Under/Over Multi - Odds are $19.89

76ers Under 40.5 - Lots of potential but completely unproven and still injury prone, hard to see them improving by 10 wins to hit this line

Rockets Over 55.5 - I think Paul and Harden will work straight away, plus the 3 point bomb strategy can see them having a great year, and they hit 55 wins last year without CP3.

Pistons Over 38.5 - Had everything go wrong last year and still got 37 wins due to solid coach. Should be some upside with Reggie J, Drummond and Avery Bradley.

Wolves Under 47.5 - Will improve but would need to jump by about 15 games on last year to break this line.

Jazz Over 40.5 - 51 wins last year, lost Hayward but that's a big fall to hit the line and they are a strong defensive side and hopefully Favors can stay on the floor, plus improvement from Hood and Exum and Gobert blocking out the Sun.

"Sure Thing" Bet - Odds $3.79

Warriors Champions - Just because they will be

OKC Win NorthWest Division - Have to beat the Wolves and the Nuggets and I think with Russ, PG and now Melo they will do that easily

Nuggets Make the Playoffs - Young guys (Harris, Murray, Mudiay) will improve on last year, Jokic is a gun, Millsap gives consistency and some Defence.


Feel free to comment, pick apart, etc, and if anyone else has laid some bets would be interested to hear.

Thought I'd see where my bets are at coming close to the half way point

Under/Over Multi

76ers looking likely to keep struggling and may start to shut Embiid down at some point.

Rockets - Losing streak at the moment but still looking good. For the over

Pistons - should get the Over even with Reggie out

Wolves - Jimmy needs to calm the hell down or he will screw me by carrying the Over.

Jazz - Looking good for the Over but scoring is shaky so could be tight.

Sure Thing Bet

Warriors - just watched Curry hit 10 X 3s after missing a month, if he stays fit and Draymond stops getting ejected they will Win it

OKC - Finally sorting it out with PG finding his mojo, just need Melo to take 10 shots or less to minimise his inefficiency. As above Butler needs to calm down and let OKC overtake them.

Nuggets - a bit shaky but should be fine

So overall I think both Multis are on track to pay out.