Why didn't we just not buy products when they shot up in price during 2020?

[GarnettFan4Life]

Fine line between wanting to buy cards (mainly sealed product) and getting to a price where you think it's now priced to high and totally stop.

How come we let Panini (and as a result - downstream sellers on ebay and group breakers) charge so much for products? Blasters that were normally $25 up to $150? Retail boxes were $100 and in some cases went to $900? not even mentioning here the super premium products and zero improvement in QC and customer service. This went backwards for the most part.

Fine line between keeping up with collector demand and a money grab.

I know I got to the point where it was not fun to go in breaks any more and I stopped speculating on opening boxes - sure I sold a couple to use the $ to be able to open a couple or put towards PC cards but there was the point where I said FUCK you Panini - what the hell is this ?????

Here in Australia, as part of the toughest lock down and freedom of movement restrictions IN THE WORLD, we were bored, we were in some cases not able to work for a fair while and we had kids at home being home schooled, we had COVID subsidies and we were looking for things to enjoy and fill our time with and maybe in turn make a few $ to keep the cycle going. But it got the the point that so many people thought this might be a viable way to make a living off this hobby if the pandemic continued on for a long time. Think about what I typed there - make a living off this hobby. Pictures of men playing sport, printed on cardboard were sent around the world - in some cases to be condition appraised - sent back around the world during a pandemic - and then displayed proudly in a collection or sold again.

Some people may get the chance to make a living off this hobby - brick and mortar shops, grading middle men etc etc - but the vast majority can't, and IMO shouldn't be able to make big $ off cards. my opinion.

Why did we not put our foot down sooner and stop buying this trash product that Panini was putting out? I know I regret not making more of a big deal about it.

Why did we not collectively communicate and enact a plan as hobby enthusiasts to put out content and organise a STOP BUY?

This seems to be happening in the Magic The Gathering community at the moment. Good on them. I know in Australia we are a smaller community than the US and China but we failed guys. We failed for quite a long time and the big companies got rich off us. We bought stuff at outrageous bloody prices. I'm disappointed......


Main reason for posting this is to record a plan of action next time something extra ordinary happens. Another pandemic, the Fanatics power transfer, who knows what it may be - but as we return to some degree of normalcy in regards to hobby state and life styles - WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO DIFFERENT NEXT TIME?



Cheer up Charlie

 

[Coopz05]

Great post Matt.

I have always put it down to breakers. I too was in to going in breaks pre covid etc, but when prices shot up, most people who were buying the product were breakers and people planning the long game.

Unlike someone breaking a box for personal satisfaction, or the hope to just recoup their investment with a decent hit, breakers just on-sold the cost to the participants in their breaks. It didn't matter how much a box cost, they could just charge more per spot. In fact the more they cost, the higher margin they could add to their bottom line making even more money per break.

I completely stopped buying boxes because I went from thinking their were maybe 2 boxes per case where I could break even, to thinking now its like 1 boxes in 10 cases and maybe a dozen cards in the entire product with a value higher than the box itself.

That's been my thinking anyway...

I really miss being able to bust a box and I hope it returns one day to the $200-$400 range because it has just about ruined it for me.

 

[sgt_pepper]

Fine line between wanting to buy cards (mainly sealed product) and getting to a price where you think it's now priced to high and totally stop.

How come we let Panini (and as a result - downstream sellers on ebay and group breakers) charge so much for products? Blasters that were normally $25 up to $150? Retail boxes were $100 and in some cases went to $900? not even mentioning here the super premium products and zero improvement in QC and customer service. This went backwards for the most part.

Fine line between keeping up with collector demand and a money grab.

I know I got to the point where it was not fun to go in breaks any more and I stopped speculating on opening boxes - sure I sold a couple to use the $ to be able to open a couple or put towards PC cards but there was the point where I said f*** you Panini - what the hell is this ?????

Here in Australia, as part of the toughest lock down and freedom of movement restrictions IN THE WORLD, we were bored, we were in some cases not able to work for a fair while and we had kids at home being home schooled, we had COVID subsidies and we were looking for things to enjoy and fill our time with and maybe in turn make a few $ to keep the cycle going. But it got the the point that so many people thought this might be a viable way to make a living off this hobby if the pandemic continued on for a long time. Think about what I typed there - make a living off this hobby. Pictures of men playing sport, printed on cardboard were sent around the world - in some cases to be condition appraised - sent back around the world during a pandemic - and then displayed proudly in a collection or sold again.

Some people may get the chance to make a living off this hobby - brick and mortar shops, grading middle men etc etc - but the vast majority can't, and IMO shouldn't be able to make big $ off cards. my opinion.

Why did we not put our foot down sooner and stop buying this trash product that Panini was putting out? I know I regret not making more of a big deal about it.

Why did we not collectively communicate and enact a plan as hobby enthusiasts to put out content and organise a STOP BUY?

This seems to be happening in the Magic The Gathering community at the moment. Good on them. I know in Australia we are a smaller community than the US and China but we failed guys. We failed for quite a long time and the big companies got rich off us. We bought stuff at outrageous bloody prices. I'm disappointed......


Main reason for posting this is to record a plan of action next time something extra ordinary happens. Another pandemic, the Fanatics power transfer, who knows what it may be - but as we return to some degree of normalcy in regards to hobby state and life styles - WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO DIFFERENT NEXT TIME?



Cheer up Charlie

i just assumed it was out of the hands of actual collectors, and was controlled by the influx of 'investors' trying to flip. massive amounts of market manipulation going on imo.
i stopped buying very quick after the initial boom. altho i did take advantage of the situation i suppose. was buying random hoops packs to fill the void and pulled quite a few zion and ja RC's, which i sold for ridiculous prices...you can now buy them slabbed @9 for less than i sold for. i think for actual collectors, patience is key. just wait it out. the cards you want will come back down.
same thing was/is happening in the slabbed video game market. only even more obvious...

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

Great post Matt.

I have always put it down to breakers. I too was in to going in breaks pre covid etc, but when prices shot up, most people who were buying the product were breakers and people planning the long game.

Unlike someone breaking a box for personal satisfaction, or the hope to just recoup their investment with a decent hit, breakers just on-sold the cost to the participants in their breaks. It didn't matter how much a box cost, they could just charge more per spot. In fact the more they cost, the higher margin they could add to their bottom line making even more money per break.

I completely stopped buying boxes because I went from thinking their were maybe 2 boxes per case where I could break even, to thinking now its like 1 boxes in 10 cases and maybe a dozen cards in the entire product with a value higher than the box itself.

That's been my thinking anyway...

I really miss being able to bust a box and I hope it returns one day to the $200-$400 range because it has just about ruined it for me.

good points and by @sgt_pepper below your post - maybe the collectors were weathering the storm, buying here and there, maybe getting some things at the inflated prices for a while but were overall swamped by the influx of those willing to go an line up at the stores for product (talking mainly about USA here) or design bots to grab the online releases within split seconds of release. Where there's money to be made I guess the seagulls will swarm like when you're at the beach with hot chips. They eventually leave when the excess has been devoured though. still pondering that time though. pretty crazy.

 

[1980bust]

I haven't bought any unopened product since the mid 90s, so I only have the anecdotes of others over the last few years to go by. But the prices vs. the average return for opening product just seems like the craziest shit ever to me. But totally get that part of what you're paying for is the thrill, the expectation, that chance. It's emotional, and couple with potential $$$ returns that we all saw happening, it's not hard to see how it became another form of legitimised gambling.

But just like the "investors" milked every last dollar they could get before stopping, so will the producers who now supply the breakers doing the same. It's literal Greater Fool stuff that - in my opinion - is on its last legs unless macro economic factors change soon. There's a definite increase in the amount of discussion around this vs the opposite opinion, so an entire psychological shift feels like it's taking place within the hobby right now.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

I haven't bought any unopened product since the mid 90s, so I only have the anecdotes of others over the last few years to go by. But the prices vs. the average return for opening product just seems like the craziest s*** ever to me. But totally get that part of what you're paying for is the thrill, the expectation, that chance. It's emotional, and couple with potential $$$ returns that we all saw happening, it's not hard to see how it became another form of legitimised gambling.

But just like the "investors" milked every last dollar they could get before stopping, so will the producers who now supply the breakers doing the same. It's literal Greater Fool stuff that - in my opinion - is on its last legs unless macro economic factors change soon. There's a definite increase in the amount of discussion around this vs the opposite opinion, so an entire psychological shift feels like it's taking place within the hobby right now.

My best memories of opening packs as a kid were hoping I hit that Shaq insert or Grant Hill or Jason Kidd RC or First Day Issues in particular from Topps Stadium Club - not worrying about return on what was put out to buy the packs - and checking out the pack to see if I beat those odds - Fleer had Hot Packs too , I remember hoping for those!!!! I feel bad for people who only open packs/boxes/cases looking to recoup x% of outlayed $ - really throws off the hobby vibes

 

[TheCardExperience]

We allowed it to happen because it lined our pockets too

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

I think that might be right in some cases but in a lot of others it was easier to just take a break or stay quiet or what they said just didn’t translate to mainstream attention.

and I also guess that when people say change doesn’t happen overnight this is what it means - slowwww

 

[TAB1980]

If all of us collectors stopping entering in breaks, the market would collapse and prices would be driven back down significantly for most products. High-end would still remain high-end because there would be enough collectors with the money to support those products. It's the lower-end products that are currently around the $200 - $1,000 mark that would drop in price the most. Either that or Fanatics would have to offer more from those products to maintain their price like back 10 years ago where most products would yield 3 - 5 hits per box in order to command that sort of price.

We are simply our own worst enemy at the moment.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

Many breaks still running in AUS? can't remember the last time I watched or went in one - might be the first year NT etc had Reggie Miller and Charles Barkley autos

 

[ozsportscardcollector]

Addiction.

I stopped buying basketball and NFL wax in 2020. To have wax jump 5X-8X in 12 months was ridiculous. I hated myself enough for paying $300 for a retail box of 2019-20 Prizm basketball( Feb 2020) and the same amount for a hobby of 2019 NFL Prizm.

I switched to opening hockey wax in mid 2020 and most of my hobby dollars have gone there ever since. The rest went on baseball and even though that didn't go up nearly as much as basketball and football, it did go up and the products became more and more diluted.

I felt for those who were mostly NBA collectors. I'm not sure what I would've done if I were in that situation but I dare say I would've been pretty shattered and pissed off.

As for another event like 2020, I don't see it happening. Not a price explosion anyway. I see it going more digital, though. Access to packs, boxes, cases, and breaks 24/7.

I think Fanatics will go the route of Upper Deck and create a massive epack style platform. They'd be crazy not to for that is the future imo - where everyone can open packs 24/7, trade with each other and then ship the cards home or have them graded.

A few hobby shops and especially smaller breakers will get pushed out when Fanatics takes over. They overpaid for the licenses and they will be very keen to roll up the distribution model and leave little on the table for others. People keep talking about how they need the current distribution model but not if they go the epack route. They could allocate 75% of each product's print run to their digital site and that will cut out much of the current distributor model. They'll need a huge warehouse and shipping team but they can do it all themelves. Or they team up with COMC like Upper Deck has.

That was a lot of waffle but in short the hobby is going to go more and more online. Opening packs online and trading online.