2009-10 Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers
2008-09 Recap
Is there an opposite of "team of destiny"? The Los Angeles Lakers won 65 regular-season games and needed five games in the NBA Finals to cruise to the championship, but at no time did it feel preordained. In fact, for much of their playoff run the focus was more on the Lakers' problems -- the struggles of Andrew Bynum and Derek Fisher, the lack of toughness that derailed them a year earlier against the Boston Celtics, and a couple of woeful efforts in the second round against Houston.
And despite the white-hot spotlight that glared on the league's most popular team, Boston and the Cleveland Cavaliers stole a lot of the Lakers' limelight during the regular season. For their part, the Lakers didn't really look like champions until the fifth game of the conference finals … at which point they won six out of their next seven to storm to the crown.
The Lakers also threw us off their championship scent with an embarrassing showing in Games 4 and 6 of the Houston Rockets series. Despite playing without Yao Ming, Houston exposed every L.A. weakness -- complacency, softness, lack of quickness at the point guard spot, and shot selection in the backcourt -- en route to a pair of lopsided wins.
In a way, perhaps the Lakers should thank the Rockets. Seeing such a harsh light shone on those weaknesses seemed to compel L.A. to address them, and the sloppy play magically cleaned itself up over the final month. Shannon Brown cemented the guard rotation, Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher stopped forcing the action, and the Lakers benefited from not having to face a point guard with Aaron Brooks' quickness the rest of the postseason.
Additionally, history should have taught us that second-round struggles are a common problem for eventual champions. As I noted at the time, the Lakers are the seventh straight champion to hit a major speed bump in the second round, and surviving those scrapes seemed to propel them toward the championship rather than slow their progress.
That was certainly the case for L.A. But before it could reach that point, a number of events needed to happen to push them to 65 wins and a top seed in the Western Conference. For starters, Lamar Odom accepted a bench role, moving from small forward to power forward in the process. That move netted two huge, positive effects for the Lakers. First, it allowed L.A. to use a devastating three-man frontcourt rotation of Gasol, Bynum and Odom that few opponents could battle. Second, it permitted Trevor Ariza -- filched from Orlando in a trade the previous season -- to move into the starting lineup and solidify the small forward spot.
Less well documented is perhaps the greatest salary dump in franchise history. The Lakers are more renowned for accumulating payroll than shedding it, but it was their divestment of the Vladimir Radmanovic mistake that reaped rewards this time. Guard Shannon Brown, included as a throw-in from Charlotte, provided much-needed stability as a backcourt reserve and hit some huge shots in the playoffs -- most notably when he turned the tide in the crucial Game 5 of the conference finals with an earth-shattering third-quarter dunk.
Brown's addition helped the Lakers overcome two major disappointments -- the off year from Jordan Farmar and the inability of Bynum to come back at full strength from a midseason injury.
Slated as the heir apparent to Fisher at the point, Farmar suffered a nightmare season and was largely out of the rotation by the playoffs. As for Bynum, he played extremely well early in the season, a performance that made L.A. notably stronger at the defensive end over the first half of the season. But for the second year in a row a midseason knee injury threw him off stride. While he returned in the postseason, Bynum proved ineffective until the Finals and never regained the All-Star caliber form he'd shown earlier in the season.
The fact L.A. won the title despite huge setbacks from its two most prominent young players is a testament to the depth and quality of the Lakers' talent. With Bryant and Gasol, the Lakers were a fearsome offensive team even when others struggled, as evidenced by their third-place finish in offensive efficiency.
Unusually for a dominant offensive team, L.A. wasn't particularly good at long-range shooting. The Lakers nailed only 36.1 percent of their 3-pointers, a bit below the league average, and didn't attempt the shot with great frequency.
Instead, L.A. overwhelmed its opposition two points at a time. L.A. claimed the league's fifth-lowest turnover rate and, thanks to the size advantage in the frontcourt, it's third-best offensive rebound rate. As a result, only two teams averaged more shot attempts per possession. Additionally, they were potent shooters inside the arc -- L.A. converted 50.5 percent of its two-point shots, again finishing third in the league. While primarily an offensive team, the Lakers demonstrated an improved defense as well. They ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, with exquisite 3-point defense being their primary calling card.
The Lakers held opponents to only 34.5 percent shooting from the arc, which was the third-best mark in the NBA. They further amplified the impact by convincing opponents to fire from distance -- only three teams allowed a higher rate of 3-pointers per field-goal attempt. While normally that's a bad sign, because L.A. defended the 3 so well, it turned into a positive. In fact, their opposition had a better true shooting percentage inside the arc, which is unusual.
This appeared to be part of a larger defensive strategy by L.A. -- they'd let opponents fire 3s off the dribble on pick-and-rolls, and keep their big men back to protect the basket. Some quick guards were able to take advantage, but many opponents shot themselves out of the game trying. Like most of Phil Jackson's gambits, it worked, and as a result he won a record-setting 10th championship. That wouldn't have shocked anybody if you'd told them before the season, but for much of the spring it seemed they were on a very different path.
Offseason Moves
It's a bit much to call the Lakers fiscally "conservative" -- they're probably going to have the league's highest payroll this season, and their willingness to shell out $15 million more in luxury tax was what made the 2008 heist of Pau Gasol possible.
But for a world champion team that is pulling in revenue by the fistful, L.A. definitely shows caution with marginal payroll increases. In addition to last winter's salary dumps of Radmanovic and Chris Mihm, the Lakers held the line in contract negotiations with three rotation players this summer and avoided trades that would take on additional salary.
Let Trevor Ariza go, signed Ron Artest for five years, $34 million. This was the biggest roll of the dice in the Lakers' summer. They didn't want to pay Ariza more than the midlevel exception and turned to Artest when they couldn't agree on a deal with Ariza. While the risk of paying Artest for five years is huge -- nobody knows what he'll do five minutes from now, let alone five years -- L.A.'s willingness to venture into the tax makes it better able to withstand the risk than most.
The Lakers also benefit in a couple of other ways from this deal. First, Artest is capable of playing the 4, which adds to the Lakers' lineup options. Second, he's a much better spot-up shooter than Ariza -- Artest hit 39.9 percent on 3s last season, while Ariza is at 29.9 percent for his career. Ariza's hot shooting from the corners in the playoffs last season convinced some people that he's a good long-range threat, but history says he's not.
Obviously, this comes with some risks, too. Artest is half a decade older than Ariza, isn't nearly as good a finisher, and may submarine the offense if he isn't willing to become L.A's fourth option. And of course, he's Ron Artest. But the Lakers weren't likely to repeat if they stood pat given the arms race going on in the East, and Artest is unquestionably the league's most qualified player to defend LeBron James one-on-one -- a salient point given the likelihood of facing Cleveland in the Finals.
Re-signed Shannon Brown for two years, $4 million. This was a fair value deal for a great bench energizer in last season's playoff run. Brown had never played well before so he couldn't command the salary he might have as a more proven quantity, but he's a solid insurance policy against flameouts by Fisher and/or Farmar.
Re-signed Lamar Odom for four years, $33 million. This was unquestionably the biggest story of the summer in L.A., as the two sides briefly walked away from the negotiating table when the Lakers wouldn't meet Odom's number. This would have proven hugely costly if Odom had been willing to relocate, because L.A. had no way to replace his spot under the salary cap rules. Fortunately, it turned out to be a great poker move by the Lakers. Odom loves Southern California and desperately wanted to return, so he ended up agreeing to a very favorable deal for L.A. The fourth year is a team option at a lower number than the first three, giving the Lakers a great deal of salary flexibility as they move into the future.
Drafted Chinemelu Elonu. The late second-round choice was a stow-away pick and is almost certainly headed for Europe. His name is better than his game -- he's a project forward who may be heard from in a couple years, if ever.
Biggest Strength: Frontcourt
Sure, they have Kobe Bryant, and that's enough of an advantage on many nights. But the advantage that doesn't get enough attention is the Lakers' size and quality up front. A lot of teams just can't deal with L.A. because of the size of Bynum and Gasol up front. Bynum is the big bruiser who occupies the opponent's biggest post defender, with the Lakers frequently using him to register first-quarter body blows in the post before turning things over to Bryant and Gasol.
Although Bynum's presence often forces Gasol to play away from the basket, it also allows the 7-footer to feast on size mismatches against smaller 4s. Additionally, it spares Gasol the physical pounding of being a full-time center and instead lets him indulge in the finesse game that he plays so well.
And then there's the change of pace with Odom. The few opponents who have the size to deal with Gasol and Bynum rarely have a big man who can match up against Odom farther from the hoop. His ability to take bigger players off the dribble provides an offensive staple for the second unit, and on some nights creates even more mismatches than the Gasol-Bynum starting combo.
Biggest Weakness: Point Guard
The Lakers are rock solid at four of the five positions, but point guard remains a major question mark. While Fisher righted his ship enough to hit some big shots in the conference finals and NBA Finals, he was brutal for the first half of the playoffs and wouldn't start for most of the league's teams. L.A. was fortunate to avoid quick point guards in the final two rounds last season, but playing in a conference with the likes of Chris Paul and Tony Parker means they may not be spared such a fate in this go-round.
Brown was the best of the Lakers' three point guards in the postseason, but he's also the least accomplished, careerwise, and is more of a 2 than a 1. He's a nice stopgap to have off the bench, but he's nobody's idea of a long-term starter at the spot.
That leaves Farmar, who's undeniably the most talented of the three despite a horrid campaign last season. He's the one Laker with the quickness to defend the speedy guards that give L.A. problems, but he'll have to improve his focus and technique and, above all, he has to make more shots.
Outlook
Despite the fact that Orlando and Cleveland spent the summer arming up while L.A. largely stood pat, the Lakers have an excellent chance to repeat as champions. They won 65 games and a title a year ago despite Bynum's and Farmar's struggles; if those two recover and the others hold steady, the Lakers could be phenomenal. Bynum, in particular, presents the prospect of a big performance jump if he can just stay on the court for the whole season.
Of course, while other teams would kill to have the Lakers' problems, it's worth noting that they do have some warts. For instance, Bryant is 31 and his free-throw rate dropped precipitously last season, Fisher is 35 and his two backups don't inspire waves of confidence, Bynum has missed nearly as many games as he's played the past two campaigns and Artest is on another planet.
That said, the Lakers are an overwhelming favorite to win the West, especially since the other perennial contenders have fallen off the past two years. I'm projecting them to prevail by a whopping 10 games, so even if some players fall well short of my estimates, they should still finish as the conference's top playoff seed.
For a second year in a row, the Lakers also may benefit from their Finals opponent. Last season they got a break with a Jameer Nelson being hampered for Orlando, after he was one of many quick point guards who riddled the Lakers' defense in the regular season. This time around they may benefit again -- Nelson is back, but I'm projecting Cleveland to meet L.A. in the Finals. With Artest in tow, the Lakers couldn't possibly match up better against the Cavs, which means Phil Jackson may be able to break out his "XI" hat next June.
Prediction: 65-17, first in Pacific Division, first in Western Conference
