Kangaroos i think will just miss out. Have utmost repect for them, and how they play as a team. Have some of the most underrated players in the comp. But i think they'll fade, as will the Doggies. The Hawkas will be in for a cold run too soon. But I expect them to win enough games to gain the double chance.
Agree with your Kangaroos prediction. If they do make the top 8 well i'd be almost fancying them for the premiership, considering they have to play Geelong twice, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs again. They also play Freo in subi, though thats not much trouble these days haha, and Brisbane twice in Queensland. Considering they need 7 wins to make the 8 probably, its crucial they win at least 2-3 of those games. Regardless of how they fair in these matches, they play Port Adelaide twice, so depsite beating sides likes cats and hawks, if they don't beat Port, they might still miss out. Could go down to the wire in Round 22!
I rate Brisbane as a dark horse this year, not a genuine premiership threat, but could do something similar to Geelong in 2004 and sneak into the top 4 with a developing side. They've got 7 games left in Queensland out of 13, and games against Melbourne, Richmond and Essendon in Victoria.
If they continue playing like they have been, I'd rate Black for the Brownlow. Can't see Buddy not winning the coleman bar injury, but if he does get injured, possibly Brown or Bradshaw to kick bags of goals guiding their team to the top 4.
Norm Smith will go to...Matty Scarlett, after he leaves Franklin goaless in the Grand Final and racks up 20 odd possession out of defence