where to from here??

Iron Clad Lou

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Interesting take. I'm very curious as to where it goes from here. The Covid lock down last year was the perfect storm for the hobby. It put a lot of eyes on the hobby and there had to be a significant amount of money flowing in from people who were not able to spend their discretionary dollars on restaurants, holidays, etc. And at the the lower end of the hobby( flippers and pack rippers) those stimulus checks were probably solely spent on cards.

There has to be some investor fatigue as well. People who bought modern basketball cards late last year and early this year are showing a significant paper loss. If those guys decide to cut their losses and move on I can not see how Luka and Zion cards go back up anytime soon. As someone who has been squeezed out of busting wax( not quite but I feel guilty spending that much on a box of cards.) I think the spike in prices last year was on the whole a bad thing. Before Covid hit the hobby was trending slowly upwards and that was ideal. It then exploded in a classic boom/bust scenario. I used to spend a fair bit on wax in 2018 and 2019, much less last year and almost nothing so far this year.

I digressed there but the next 6 months will tell the story. If life returns to some semblance of normality in the US over next few months and people start to spend their money on holidays, restaurants and whatever else they spent their cash on prior to covid it will be interesting to see how much money does move away from sports cards. There seem to be an awful lot of dealers and flippers around now. But if there isn't a continual increase in new people coming in to buy those cards.....

P.S I sold a raw Luka base Prizm for $560USD late last year. At the time that was around the lower spectrum of the price range for that card. I regretted selling at the time but I needed the money. In hindsight I do not regret that sale and I think it will be quite a while before that card goes back up to its historical peak - which I imagine was around the time he sunk the buzzer beater in game 4 against the Clippers last year).

Apologies for the ramble. I love the hobby and would like to see it go back to where it was prior to covid.

Luka and Zions are long holds. Even then, they won't end up Lebron prices.

I think prices on wax will drop alot, but the 2019-21 stock will forever be expensive due to the price at the time, and the eventual scarcity of it.

You are correct re. dealers and flippers. Every man and his dog now wants to start breaking and opening up a "online card store". The stock of all these places is low end retail with some hobby at ridiculous prices.

I too want to go back to $100 Hobby boxes :(
 
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The Other Luka

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Luka and Zions are long holds. Even then, they won't end up Lebron prices.

I think prices on wax will drop alot, but the 2019-21 stock will forever be expensive due to the price at the time, and the eventual scarcity of it.

You are correct re. dealers and flippers. Every man and his dog now wants to start breaking and opening up a "online card store". The stock of all these places is low end retail with some hobby at ridiculous prices.

I too want to go back to $100 Hobby boxes :(
I agree both are long holds. I really hope you are right on wax prices coming down. There is nothing better in the hobby than opening a box of cards.

The last time I opened multiple boxes was at Christmas and it was primarily hockey and low end baseball. Normally it would've been a bit of all four( NBA,NFL, MLB, NHL).

Again, I really hope you are right on wax.
 

Iron Clad Lou

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I agree both are long holds. I really hope you are right on wax prices coming down. There is nothing better in the hobby than opening a box of cards.

The last time I opened multiple boxes was at Christmas and it was primarily hockey and low end baseball. Normally it would've been a bit of all four( NBA,NFL, MLB, NHL).

Again, I really hope you are right on wax.

You can see the start of it with Hoops. Sadly it is now junk era levels of production for Hoops. I despise it now. Ditto Donruss.

I think it will eventually go down with people stop buying from flippers. But, will flippers stop flipping if buyers keep buying?

Currently, stock is gone straight away, so flippers flip and buyers buy. It is on the buyers to stop buying but if they can't get retail, they will keep buying. Someone has to blink
 
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I don't understand how some people can keep joining breaks. They must be really rich or having gambling issues
I know for a fact that people are maxing out credit cards and even seen a few people draw from super as an investment purchase under the art & Collectables rules to fund new cards
 

Iron Clad Lou

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I know for a fact that people are maxing out credit cards and even seen a few people draw from super as an investment purchase under the art & Collectables rules to fund new cards

Jesus did not know people were going to that point.

I am getting to close to comfort with my purchases of sealed stock. I really need to reign my spending in. At least at the end of it I have a product i can sell and recoup the cash. The $500 i spent in the last month on breaks netted me cards worth $15 and endless frustration
 

The Other Luka

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Jesus did not know people were going to that point.

I am getting to close to comfort with my purchases of sealed stock. I really need to reign my spending in. At least at the end of it I have a product i can sell and recoup the cash. The $500 i spent in the last month on breaks netted me cards worth $15 and endless frustration
In 2018 I maxed out my credit card all the time. I reckon I spent 25K AUD in 2018 and most of it on tick. I only went in 3 breaks in that whole time, though, for a combined total of $120. I've never been one for breaks. Much prefer to rip the stuff myself. Haven't spent much this year. Just did my first order from SCC since Christmas( $450AUD). Not much bang for your buck these days. 2018 was a hoot. P.S. 30 year degenerate racetrack gambler here.
 
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The Other Luka

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Just to give you a sense of how degenerate my gambling is.. I've just checked my Paypal and there is $220 in there( COMC). My credit card is nearly maxed out and I owe ebay $700. What to do? Why transfer to the Tab account of course and stimulate the economy - especially the local WA racing industry economy which gets a cut from the WATAB coffers.
 

The Other Luka

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Jesus did not know people were going to that point.

I am getting to close to comfort with my purchases of sealed stock. I really need to reign my spending in. At least at the end of it I have a product i can sell and recoup the cash. The $500 i spent in the last month on breaks netted me cards worth $15 and endless frustration
I can't deal with people who buy sealed wax to sit on. Just disgraceful....
 

Iron Clad Lou

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I can't deal with people who buy sealed wax to sit on. Just disgraceful....
I've spent 22k in the last year on boxes.

I've opened a most of the low end stuff, but the big ones are sealed up nicely.

I've got a fair bit to grade, but should be ahead when I cash out.

I'm risk averse and not a gambler at all, as you can see
 
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1980bust

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Well this certainly makes me feel less concerned that I splurged over $500 on singles last month and started panicking at what I'd done.

At this point, after reading Blowout regularly, I'm fairly desensitised to dozens of people talking about spending five figures on a card like it's nothing, but for some reason seeing this thread development in $AUD hits different.
 
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The Other Luka

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I've spent 22k in the last year on boxes.

I've opened a most of the low end stuff, but the big ones are sealed up nicely.

I've got a fair bit to grade, but should be ahead when I cash out.

I'm risk averse and not a gambler at all, as you can see
Good for you. My comment about those who sit on sealed wax was very much tongue in cheek. If I had any semblance of control I'd do it myself.
 
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Iron Clad Lou

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Well this certainly makes me feel less concerned that I splurged over $500 on singles last month and started panicking at what I'd done.

At this point, after reading Blowout regularly, I'm fairly desensitised to dozens of people talking about spending five figures on a card like it's nothing, but for some reason seeing this thread development in $AUD hits different.
Doesn't include the singles I've bought as well!
 
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The Other Luka

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Doesn't include the singles I've bought as well!
I hear you. I've spent 8.5K USD on singles with COMC( scumc) from December 2018 until Feb this year. 2.5K USD with e-pack from October last year until about 6 weeks ago.

I'm not doing epack anymore. I still haven't received my order from October last year( about $450 worth) and I just learned that their shipping is handled by COMC!!!!. Unbelievable. Had I known COMC were involved with epack I would not have spent a cent with them. And I still have over 800 cards on epack's site. I'm going to contact Upper Deck soon and see if something can be done. Firstly about the order from October which I don't even know has been shipped and then the cards I still have with them. They don't have toploaders at the moment so I wouldn't ship them anyway but it's a headache knowning that it will probably be 8-12 months before I see those cards. COMC have caused me a lot of grief in the last 18 months. I just did a fire sale on there and sold almost 200 cards with an SRP of $1000 for just over $200. I will be so relieved to disentangle myself from COMC. It will mean no more set building but that's ok. At some point you have to be satisfied with what you have. I probably won't be buying singles anymore, either. I'll just buy wax here and there( thankfully baseball and hockey wax is not yet as crazy as basketball and football) and be content with that.

When what is supposed to be a fun pursuit becomes stressful it's time to change gears and start appreciating what you have built up over 4 years instead of constantly being driven by fomo and spending every dime( and some) on cardboard.

Time to smell the roses as the saying goes. It's a lot of fun to go back through binders and boxes that you haven't looked at for ages.