State of the Hobby

State of the Hobby (No not State of Emergency)

I just received the following msg from a very long term collector (yeah he's old! and no it wasn't @kiwi_in_melb)
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I think I need a break from this hobby. Lay low for a while and come back after covid dies down. I don’t like it’s current state right now =====================

How about some discussion about the current state of the hobby and I guess the reminder that many people are going through all sorts of different things at the moment (more than normal) and we should be sticking together as a community.

• What do you guys think of the current state?
• Will prices stay the way they are?
• A lot of new members (time, MJ doco, no sports) - will they stay?
• What can we do to improve the hobby

Good thread idea BTW.

• What do you guys think of the current state?

I'm a glass half full kind of guy so read the following with that in mind. Also, like many in the hobby I collected cards when I was a kid and then returned as a slightly heavier middle aged man. Fortunately, I returned in 2017 so had some time to acclimate. I also really benefited from all of the advice provided on this site. You fellas are very generous with your expertise and it is always appreciated.

I am liking where the hobby is heading. When I started back in to collecting most of the literature at the time was saying cardboard was a dying art with kids more interested in computer games etc so I had resigned myself to the fact that I was getting back into a dying hobby along with a cohort of largely middle aged men. I was hooked none-the-less. Someone posted an article about breakers bringing the hobby back and the last two NBA seasons with Luka, Trae, Ja and Zion have kicked the hobby into overdrive with prices going ballistic. While it certainly has made some cards harder to get, it has also meant that people have re-calibrated their goals and now collectors are interested in all kinds of cards previously thought worthless. Fathers are getting their sons into it and the best part of the MJ documentary + COVID superstorm is that many, many older collectors are getting back into the game so some of the older cards which were hardly ever available for sale are coming out of the woodwork. It is awesome. Even though NBA is the leader I'm finding for those of us that collect other cards NFL, NRL, Non-Sport etc it has having a flow on effect in those areas as well. Sure there are a thousand annoying things happening but it pales into insignificance compared to when I first got into the hobby.

• Will prices stay the way they are?

This is kind of the million dollar question. People who have their finger on the economics will be able to better answer this. Is it like the tech bubble or is it the new normal. Gary Vs entry into the market has certainly changed the paradigm.

• A lot of new members (time, MJ doco, no sports) - will they stay?

I'm hoping that a portion of them will and that their kids will also get rusted on.

• What can we do to improve the hobby

Keep enjoying it for what it is, a hobby. Being kind and considerate goes a long way. If there is some way of regulating E-bay bad behaviour like shilling etc and selling fake cards that would be grand but any time there is money involved there will always be someone unscrupulous trying to take advantage people.

Like with all things in life there are some great things and some really disappointing things going on in the hobby.

I love the chase of players you PC, looking through FB forums, eBay and here to perhaps stumble across a card you've been searching for.... Getting that mail day and adding it to the collection. It's a buzz.

The biggest buzz for me though was opening packs. The element of anticipation, surprise and hope as you bust open a box...

But that is now way out of reach for most sane people, in terms of 1) price and 2) actually being able to source the product.

Not to call anyone out, but seriously $20 for a pack of hoops hobby pack (8 cards) listed on Cherry?!?! And they have the hide to say "discounted from $24.99"..... haha

I know there is next to nothing you can do about it, but the bulk buying and stashing of blasters, boxes and packs just to resell at 5 times the price is a real worry in my opinion.

Back to buying singles for the PC for me.

• What do you guys think of the current state?

Not a fan, everything has become too money centric and has really sucked the fun out of it. Trying to work out a trade with anyone is the hardest thing these days where it used to be easy. Box prices are pricing the true collector out of the hobby. When Hoops the entry level product prices are where prizm was not that many years ago then there is an issue. The issues with products themselves. just adding more parallels of the same rookies with the same photo used at the photoshoot is not the answer to add more value or increase production runs and keep the everyday collector happy. Hyping on potential instead of proven talent is great in some ways as there are some real bargains to be had for guys that will hold or gain value instead of guys like Wiggins that were hyped to hell and have fallen off the wagon.

• Will prices stay the way they are?
• A lot of new members (time, MJ doco, no sports) - will they stay?

Will prices stay they will until those new members leave. Most of these guys are in it to make a buck thanks to Gary V etc. When the everyday collector has been driven away and they have no one to sell to or sell at a loss then they will disappear as quickly as they came on board.

• What can we do to improve the hobby

Stop buying products at outrageous prices. The distributors are marking up their prices because the breakers / shops are still buying at those prices. Breaks/razzes etc. are still filling at those crazy prices. Next product comes along distributor doubles the price from last year people still buy, next product they triple from last year people still buy... they wont stop increasing until people stop buying. People just always have to have the latest cards all the time. People that know me will know I love a good break, but I have had to cut back so much because there just isnt value in them in anymore.

Make sure you have integrity... dont be the guy that asks for a card on the cheap for pc / your kids pc and then sell two weeks later for double the price.

Most importantly help your fellow collectors where you can... a surprise mailday can really brighten a day, even a message saying I see you collect Player X I have this would you be keen before I list it for everyone else is always appreciated but seems to be forgotten about these days too

I've been collecting sine the early 90's as a kid in school, and have managed to amass a fair amount of stuff (haven't had time to catalogue everything properly). I'm actually quite disappointed with how things are going. Its great that the unique inserts from the late 90's is getting recognition, but its getting destroyed by Panini. Their case prices are ridiculous, even with their low and mid range tiered products. It can be justified if you can get good hits to justify the outlay, like, say, Exquisite or Ultimate back in the day, but you don't. Its bad when Exquisite is a bargain compared to the new stuff. As an example, a case of 2019-20 Revolution would put you back about $3000AUD or so, and you MIGHT break even if you get a Futura Auto Zion. Probably get half your money back if you get a Zion galactic. Otherwise rest is trash. Too many unimaginative parallels too, who needs 5-8 tiers of parallels in different colours in the same product?
What we need is Topps and Upper Deck to provide competition and innovation.
With everything going on I've found that my collecting has wound down significantly.

Competition would be great. I dont think Topps or UD is the answer though. Topps are the kings of parallels and i fear the success panini has had pumping out parallels would only encourage them to be worse.

UD products have been lackluster, the old retro releases they did and the newer hockey products don't show them in the best light anymore and all the innovation and creativity seems to be gone. I will give them credit for Hard court though, that was unique and fresh.

I would love to see someone new come in with something totally different, but no one has the budget to compete with panini and the league's don't really give two shits about the hobby as long as they are getting paid.

kiwi_in_melb said:

Competition would be great. I dont think Topps or UD is the answer though. Topps are the kings of parallels and i fear the success panini has had pumping out parallels would only encourage them to be worse.

UD products have been lackluster, the old retro releases they did and the newer hockey products don't show them in the best light anymore and all the innovation and creativity seems to be gone. I will give them credit for Hard court though, that was unique and fresh.

I would love to see someone new come in with something totally different, but no one has the budget to compete with panini and the league's don't really give two s***s about the hobby as long as they are getting paid.

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Agree that UD were never the most innovative, but they look like genius' compared to Panini. Fleer/Skybox had the most creative insert sets and technologies of them all. Their big hits actually looked special. I mention UD because Mj/LBJ auto exclusivity.

Hopefully someone somewhere can make some good product without breaking the budget. They need to cater to the budget conscious as well as the serious collector, not just the breakers that try to simply profit.

I personally haven’t purchased a box of cards for the last 6 months or went in a break for a long time. I’ve just been priced out of the market unless I want to pick up the raptors in a break.

I first got back into collecting in 2015-16 and loved going to Just cards and picking up boxes of Clear Vision for $60. Not a high value product but it was a lot of fun. Then in 2016-17 I could get Totally Certified for $80 etc. Breaks were also a lot of fun with the highest value teams being around $150.

Now I look at buying boxes and see hoops at $450! Nothing under $400 or pretty close to it. And the cost of breaks have gone up as the Pelicans are so expensive that they need to be randomised to the group, which means every teams price goes up. I know you can go on Facebook groups and the like and buy singles etc. but for me the fun is not really knowing what you’re going to get, but at least getting something.

I’m likely going to start picking up the old retro packs for around $3-$4 a pack. I know they are over produced and worthless, but some of the inserts are really fun to collect and it’s always nice to buy the same as you did as a kid.

I’m not sure where it goes from here but surely it’s peaked in terms of price and availability. Hopefully other brands enter the market to make it more interesting and bring something different to the card game.

pete23nba said:

Agree that UD were never the most innovative, but they look like genius' compared to Panini. Fleer/Skybox had the most creative insert sets and technologies of them all. Their big hits actually looked special. I mention UD because Mj/LBJ auto exclusivity.

Hopefully someone somewhere can make some good product without breaking the budget. They need to cater to the budget conscious as well as the serious collector, not just the breakers that try to simply profit.

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But how do they "cater to the budget conscious" when even shitty products like Hoops are now on the secondary market for $450 a box....?

It's a tough one and I don't know the answer, but people are just buying bulk and hording it. Prices sky rocket and the worst thing is people are paying for it.

$150-$200 for a blaster! It's just dumb.

I don't know where it all goes from here.

GarnettFan4Life said:

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I heard this is going to be the official design

good one kiwi

kiwi_in_melb said:

I heard this is going to be the official design

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First thing I think of when I see Wilson stuff. Wiiiiiilssssssssonnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!

The prices are hilarious for boxes. If people wanna pay, that's their choice.

There is a lot of quality stuff out there. A lot of stuff in general.

I would say there is far more people coming in than going out. Online is getting bigger. I'm seeing random youtubers in Oz on my FB.

It's here to stay.

Mosaic FOTL sells down to $650USD on Panini's dutch auction (way overpriced IMO).

Within hours it's listed on eBay at $1400USD+

It's fucked.

Gary Dixon said:

I personally haven’t purchased a box of cards for the last 6 months or went in a break for a long time. I’ve just been priced out of the market unless I want to pick up the raptors in a break.

I first got back into collecting in 2015-16 and loved going to Just cards and picking up boxes of Clear Vision for $60. Not a high value product but it was a lot of fun. Then in 2016-17 I could get Totally Certified for $80 etc. Breaks were also a lot of fun with the highest value teams being around $150.

Now I look at buying boxes and see hoops at $450! Nothing under $400 or pretty close to it. And the cost of breaks have gone up as the Pelicans are so expensive that they need to be randomised to the group, which means every teams price goes up. I know you can go on Facebook groups and the like and buy singles etc. but for me the fun is not really knowing what you’re going to get, but at least getting something.

I’m likely going to start picking up the old retro packs for around $3-$4 a pack. I know they are over produced and worthless, but some of the inserts are really fun to collect and it’s always nice to buy the same as you did as a kid.

I’m not sure where it goes from here but surely it’s peaked in terms of price and availability. Hopefully other brands enter the market to make it more interesting and bring something different to the card game.

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Hey all. I've not been active in the hobby for a while but thinking of getting back into it.

What are/where can I find these Facebook groups that people are referring to? Have they overtaken ebay as the best place to buy and sell singles? For reference I've got a stack of maybe 50-100 cards that I kept when I left the hobby last and I think I'm gonna try sell some of these but then keep some and get some new display folders etc to enjoy them.

jimboiitmac said:

Hey all. I've not been active in the hobby for a while but thinking of getting back into it.

What are/where can I find these Facebook groups that people are referring to? Have they overtaken ebay as the best place to buy and sell singles? For reference I've got a stack of maybe 50-100 cards that I kept when I left the hobby last and I think I'm gonna try sell some of these but then keep some and get some new display folders etc to enjoy them.

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I don't know.

I posted some Kobe cards on my Instagram around his passing and got 0 likes. Most people on IG don't know my card hobby though.

I've been dipping my toes back in the water, buying some cricket cards recently & finding some old good ones & things I forgot about, like an "MJ Mini UD CD disc card" 2x Black Bradman Heritage Cards i.e.

But why post mail days on here that have been shown multiple times?

I've been receiving (& now making) offers 43-47% lower than list prices for Signatures & Inserts and they're being sent/accepted.

jimboiitmac said:

Hey all. I've not been active in the hobby for a while but thinking of getting back into it.

What are/where can I find these Facebook groups that people are referring to? Have they overtaken ebay as the best place to buy and sell singles? For reference I've got a stack of maybe 50-100 cards that I kept when I left the hobby last and I think I'm gonna try sell some of these but then keep some and get some new display folders etc to enjoy them.

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Facebook groups to consider

NBA Card Collectors Downunder - sales and wanted posts (also an auction group where cards start at 99c)
Royalty Card Market - people razz cards and boxes
Late Night Breaks and Cardboard Lovers- both do breaks and some sales

Most of these groups focus on the current release cards and boxes, but you also get older cards for the true collectors rather than those only looking to grade cards and sell.

jimboiitmac said:

Hey all. I've not been active in the hobby for a while but thinking of getting back into it.

What are/where can I find these Facebook groups that people are referring to? Have they overtaken ebay as the best place to buy and sell singles? For reference I've got a stack of maybe 50-100 cards that I kept when I left the hobby last and I think I'm gonna try sell some of these but then keep some and get some new display folders etc to enjoy them.

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I've mainly sold my cards on eBay previously, but have now made a major move into FB groups.

A few reasons :

You put your card/s infront of Aussies who want to buy then and there.

Sales are instant.

Paypal is there right away.

No fees which are getting outrageous on eBay. You are basically taking a 20% hit on your sale price with every sale.

NBA Card Market Australia is where I have run 3-4 sales and it's been fantastic. Buyers pay straight up, cards go out next day and every one is happy. Quick and easy way to move cards you don't want to buy what you do. Just check the rules around selling and packing, and be realistic with your prices. People know what a card is and isn't worth.

I've also sold some cards through my IG account, but that's been solely dedicated to my card collection so again, putting stuff in front of people who are actually interested.

We can look back in history and easily project the direction of the hobby. Can also apply learnings from other industries and economies to help predict hobby direction.

What do you guys think of the current state?
We cannot generalise the whole hobby into a single basket. There are markets within markets and they all move somewhat independently.
Modern cards are headed into junk wax 90s era. So far supply is meeting demand but we can easily have a demand shock where investors leave the market creating an oversupply = junk wax era. There is a silver lining. Even with the 90s junk wax collapse there were gems that emerged - pmg, star rubies, mj, kobe, rare desirable inserts, etc. Gems will appear within modern cards even if it all implodes.
Pre-panini can be looked at as another separate market. They have different drivers and consumers. Supply is capped and kids that grew up within that era are now coming into the workforce or moving up the rat race and amassing more disposable income. And enough time has passed so that cards that were destined to go to zero have gone to zero. Outlook looks very rosy for cards in demand from that market.
Jordan is another seperate market and I am ultra bullish. Same with Lebron.
There is an ultra high end market which is the playground of millionaires. Those that play here are not retail. They are smart money, instituitional, HNW, accredited and they know how finance works. Am very bullish on this market sector.
Markets within markets. Understand the market you are playing in.

Will prices stay the way they are?
Again, markets within markets. Economics is driven by supply and demand. And this has been proven with past era cards and players. Superstars will continue to increase in value as long as supply is constrained. This means MJ, Lebron, Kobe autos now after hiss passing (may he RIP), Wilt autos, vintage, etc. Supply is constraint due to different factors. Yes even through recessions. Demand will always be there to drive prices higher.
From 90s era we have learnt that rc cards creates a perceived supply constraint. RCs of stars and superstars maintain and grow in value.
We have also learnt value is determined by demand. When demand is not present it becomes a race to zero.

A lot of new members (time, MJ doco, no sports) - will they stay?
Of course not. Some will stay but most will leave. Once bitten twice shy. All the noobs coming in are retail. They chase the money and are always behind the curve ball. Retail are always the causes of bubbles. Every bubble throughout history has popped and in all instances retail get burnt then leave in droves leaving a much smaller core participation base. Why should it be different this time around.

What can we do to improve the hobby?
I learnt early on that it is a waste of energy trying to influence change. Too many participants, too much pulling and pushing go 8ing on, and that life is short. It is much easier to understand the game, the rules and how best to navigate and play to your advantage.

Some of my thoughts.
Apologies for the long read and bad grammer. Difficult writing so much on a phone.