Future Hall of Famers

[Dodgydave]

I keep folders with my cards of current Hall of Famers as well as guys I think are likely to get the call/make the cut in the future, whether they are retired or still current players.

I figured I would see what other people's opinions were on some of the guys I currently have in the folder and maybe some I should add (or remove!). I would also love some feedback on the young guys who you think are deserving of inclusion, even if we can all agree they are in no way sure things.

I have mocked up a list of those I have in the folder and ordered them into rough groups with a little commentary.

Sure things
Lebron James
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul
Steph Curry
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
Dwight Howard
Carmelo Anthony

More likely than not
Anthony Davis
Damian Lillard
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Jokic
Paul George
Kawhai Leonard
Rudy Gobert (not the most popular name but I can't see 4xDPoY awards not getting him in)
Kyrie Irving (I don't really like it, but figure he will make the cut when it is all said in done. Feel free to tell me why not!)

Probably making it...
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson (I think Green is much more likely. I think Thompson is a bit over-rated, but all the titles likely get him there.)
Joel Embiid (Great stats, an MVP, but really needs to add a bit of longevity.)
DeMar DeRozan (He's not who I think of as a Hall of Famer but 23k points and counting gets you in.)
Kyle Lowry (Again, not a first thought Hall of Famer, but, in his case 111 win shares usually gets you there.)
Jimmy Butler (Lots of win shares, probably over-rated playoff reputation help him out. Like Embiid, needs to add some longevity to push closer to 20k points to lockdown a spot.)

Interesting arguments...
Shawn Marion
Amare Stoudamire (A great pair of contrasting team mates. Do you value a short peak of offensive dominance and terrible defense or a long career of solid offensive and high/elite defense?)
Kevin Love (I am a Love apologist and think he massively sacrificed career numbers in moving to Cleveland to be the third wheel. Much like Chris Bosh — though not as good — I think he shouldn't be overlooked.)
Blake Griffin (I wouldn't put him in as I think more style than substance and doesn't have career longevity to get his counting stats up. But, he got buckets and dunked a lot so he will get consideration.)
LaMarcus Aldridge (115 win shares and 20k points. I would say that has to get him in, but he doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer...)
Joe Johnson (You say no, I say no. Traditionally 20k points has said yes...)
Rajon Rondo (He's a no, but there are guys with worse resumes in there.)
Ricky Rubio (His NBA career is a no and could be called a disappointment. But he's a European legend and its the "Basketball Hall of Fame" so I think he is an interesting case.)
Derrick Rose (I wouldn't put him in, but he has an MVP, so even if he doesn't make it I will probably keep him in the folder.)
Mark Price (I only threw him in, because if you think Klay Thompson is a Hall of Famer, compare his career and All NBA/MVP shares to Price...)

In the folder but should probably be removed
Kristaps Porzingis
Karl Anthony Towns

They're young but are definitely make it (fingers crossed)
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum

They're young and on the right track
Devin Booker
Donovan Mitchell
Trae Young
Shai Gilgeous-Aexander
Bam Adebayo

More work to do but can get there
Jaylen Brown
De'Aaron Fox
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant

Way too young but we have to put some guys in here...
Anthony Edwards
Cade Cunningham
LeMelo Ball
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Sengun (sue me, I want a Rocket on here...)
Paolo Banchero
Chet Holmgren

That's a lot of names — now tell me how wrong I am!

Who do I need to add?
Who do I need to remove?

 

[Dodgydave]

So looking to stir up some controversy and conversation after Klay Thompson's captains hat night or whatever that was...

Here's the statistical case why Thompson does not make the HOF (let alone the top 75 players of all-time, where we got to enjoy the excessive bleating when he missed out.)

Below is a list of every guard who made an All-NBA first, second or third team between 1989-90 and 2009-10 and is retired but not in the HOF. I used this date range as we are at least getting close to a "modern" style of basketball where the three-point shot was somewhat utilized.

* I included Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo as they made All-NBA teams but slightly after my date range.
** These guys didn't make All-NBA teams but were random names that came into my head that seemed interesting.

I included a total points column to give Thompson some credit and perspective as this is what he does best and has done better than the majority of these players. As he is still active Thompson will add to his counting stats, though other than points he will need a major uptick in performance to more than incrementally increase Win Shares. VORP is unlikely to change and PER, as a rate stat, will decrease assuming his performance level continues to decline.

Player	PER	Win Shares	VORP	Total points
Klay Thompson	16.0	55.7	16.9	15708
Mark Price	19.6	71.1	31.1	10989
Kevin Johnson	20.7	92.8	37.3	13127
Latrell Sprewell	15.1	56.3	21.0	16712
Anfernee Hardaway	17.4	61.9	21.0	10684
Rod Strickland	18.0	85.8	36.6	14463
Stephon Marbury	18.7	77.5	30.7	16297
Eddie Jones	16.7	100.6	42.3	14155
Michael Redd	19.5	55.9	21.4	11972
Baron Davis	17.8	63.1	33.1	13447
Sam Cassell	19.5	87.5	28.8	15635
Gilbert Arenas	19.6	51.3	22.3	11402
Deron Williams	18.2	77.3	28.3	13804
Brandon Roy	20.0	37.4	16.3	6136
Joe Johnson	15.4	82.9	26.5	20407
Rajon Rondo*	15.8	61.8	23.2	9337
Derrick Rose*	18.0	44.6	18.2	12573
Kenny Anderson**	16.4	62.5	21.9	10789
Mookie Blaylock**	16.8	71.8	39.2	11962
Dana Barros**	16.4	49.6	18.1	8901
Jalen Rose**	15.3	47.2	12.3	13220

So what do I take from this...

* Thompson has been a slightly above average player by PER for his career and that does put him above a few guys on this list. Unfortunately, decline is coming...
* Despite playing for one of the winningest franchises of the last 15 years, Win Shares do not credit him with much of Golden State's success.
* VORP is even harsher giving him only three of 12 seasons as more than two wins above a replacement player (well a replacement player is actually -2.0 wins by VORP so I guess three seasons as four wins above -2.0 if you want to be pedantic...)
* Excluding one obvious injury case, you have to get to Jalen **freakin'** Rose before you find a player, who by advanced stats at least, is a sure fire worse case than Thompson.
* Advanced stats are way too harsh on Thompson. While I think he likely isn't as good as his reputation, I also don't think he has been a less valuable player than Dana Barros...
* Advanced stats like Eddie Jones way more than I would have thought.
* Advanced stats like Rod Strickland way more than I would have thought.
* Looking at Brandon Roy's career makes me very, very sad. Only five actual seasons...
* Looking at Penny's first team selections makes me sad. What could have been. He is in my Hall of Fame folder, though I am not saying he should be in the Hall.
* Kevin Johnson was a beast. All that in 11 real seasons. He probably should have been on my original list. His dunk on Olajuwon is also my favourite dunk ever so that doesn't hurt!

So is Thompson a great shooter, good scorer, above average defender who is over-rated because he found the perfect system and complimentary stars in Curry, Green (and also Durant) who he rode to a bunch of titles that pad his resume? (That is mean, he didn't ride them. He was obviously important too.)

Or do advanced stats under-rate the value of his shooting and on-ball defense that is not well captured in traditional steal and block measures? Was his shooting "gravity" a key part of why the Golden State system offense was so successful and his defensive ability to guard up and down positions equally important to their ability to play their small-ball death line ups?

Or is the answer somewhere in between? (Let's say no because that is boring!)

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

All good info and points but the person I usually reference in Hall of Fame topics is Mitch Richmond. If he's in Klay is 100% in and deserving.

Blame it on the HoopsHall for not having clear guidelines for eligibility and also not listing who or how voting works and keeping the pool small and elite.

Maybe the NBA needs their own seperate Hall ? Not sure how to fix this I've been thinking about it for years.


https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/mitch_richmond_vs_klay_thompson.htm




Maybe even looking at Sam Jones -

https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/sam_jones_vs_klay_thompson.htm

There you've got most of that era players going in because the league was smaller, they wanted to make it seem an elite honor going in and especially being a member of the Celtic team.

Unless you're going to start kicking people out it's going to be tough having definitive criteria too.

 

[Dodgydave]

All good info and points but the person I usually reference in Hall of Fame topics is Mitch Richmond. If he's in Klay is 100% in and deserving.

Blame it on the HoopsHall for not having clear guidelines for eligibility and also not listing who or how voting works and keeping the pool small and elite.

Maybe the NBA needs their own seperate Hall ? Not sure how to fix this I've been thinking about it for years.


https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/mitch_richmond_vs_klay_thompson.htm




Maybe even looking at Sam Jones -

https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/sam_jones_vs_klay_thompson.htm

There you've got most of that era players going in because the league was smaller, they wanted to make it seem an elite honor going in and especially being a member of the Celtic team.

Unless you're going to start kicking people out it's going to be tough having definitive criteria too.

I had a look at the comparisons and not sure I can agree that Thompson has a better case than Richmond.

He has more titles, but pretty much every per game stat is worse and will only fall as he continues his decline phase. His totals are obviously lower too and I'm not sure if he will hang on long enough to pass Richmond in them.

Pretty much every advanced stat favours Richmond as well.

Thompson does have the titles of course and his key membership of an iconic team will only help.

I purposely stayed away from older era player comparisons. The game was so different, there were so many less teams as you point out and I never saw any of the guys play. Jones' case has always seemed a bit light and you do wonder if he would have made the cut without all the titles. However, I would argue the same about Thompson. If he had the same stats but played on the Clippers or Kings would it even be a discussion?

I do agree the Hall is probably "too big".