Can certainly see this writing on the wall (if not this year then next). And if so, I think this is me done. Been collecting Select since 93 (team collector - Saints). The last few years have pushed the limit in terms of quantity - particularly the ad nauseum production of different 'versions' of the same card (Green, orange, blue etc). I have loved the increase in quality and genuinely applaud Select for that (Brilliance / Supremacy etc). They raised the bar. But a simultaneous increase in quantity is just too much for me.
FWIW, I think my collecting goals might simply move to chasing the missing cards from previous years, and no longer trying to keep up. It is simply not possible to collect complete team sets per year anymore, and that was my interest. I will still finish out the year (a full Supremacy 1 & 2 set will look amazing). But 5 sets a year? 3 was pushing it IMO. Certainly works in odd years with 1 high end release (see 2019). But it stops being 'high end' or desirable if you do it multiple times a year every year. I don't begrudge Select the $$. But it does feel like they might be sacrificing short term profits for longer term viability.
I am also increasingly concerned about cards with low numbers (considered 'high-end') actually holding much value medium-long term (simply because they have numbers on the back). Don't get me wrong, I don't collect for profit. But I also don't want a card I pay $200 for tomorrow to be $20 seven years down the road. Just going through recent years for the Saints and looking at / 500 cards (and not including ad hoc hilites or rising stars etc):
| Year | Numbered 20 - 50 | Numbered 51 - 100 | Numbered 101 - 200 | Numbered 201 - 500 |
| 2012 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2013 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2015 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 |
| 2016 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 2017 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 31 |
| 2018 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 36 |
| 2019 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 28 |
| 2020 | 3 | 17 | 29 | 30 |
And those 2021 numbers are without 3 more 'high end' sets. Per team, we could realistically see more 2021 cards numbered under 100 then Select used to produce per team for the entire year.
2019 you can justify 31 cards numbered under 100 because of Supremacy. This will be iconic. But IMO, that is not a model that can be repeated year in and year out.
Looking through my collection, 2018 really seems to be the year when this became all about $$. 2 sets of brownlow predictors (x8), 4 versions of the burst cards and a xmas set of cards that just added some foil around the edges of the regular set. The introduction of Prestige in 2020 really seems to emphasise that the business model has become to produce 20+ cards numbered under 100 a year and that will satisfy demand. Doesn't matter is if it is the same card over and over. Just change up the colors, whack increasingly limited numbers on it to make it rare, and hope collectors don't notice that they now own page after page of the same card just in different colors. Its lazy and looks crap.
For my 2 cents, I also don't see how this quantity of cards numbered under 100 hold any value long term. Is it really worth making a Shane Savage platinum brownlow predictor or a Seb Ross gold showstopper numbered under 50? Should this not be reserved for the players who are actually good? These are not iconic players being put on big cards anymore (unless you were lucky enough to be a Tigers supporter where this increase has coincided with premierships and brownlows). There are also pretty much no signatures among the /100 cards now too. How many /50 Seb Ross cards can his mum actually buy? How do this many low numbered cards hold their value among such a small community in such a small country??
Quantity wise, I also now own more Select cards from 2018 - 2021, then I do from 1993-2018. And 2021 is not even half done. 2019 I was excited for Supremacy. Now I am in June wondering how anyone can justify Supremacy, Brilliance and series 2 across the next 5 months. If team collectors start just doing one or two sets a year, the price of a /100 card in Footy Stars is going to come screaming in very very fast. What happens when the the 'investors' and 'flippers' begin to thin out because collectors are spread across too many sets and the profits just aren't there? Who does Select actually sell to? How many people are actually on forums like this, or at card shows or visiting stores? Its a pretty damn small world. Its easy to say Select only care about the initial sale, and not resale. But demand will ultimately be determined by the number of serious collectors who remain in the game, and not the middle men currently buying their product.
Perhaps I might revisit when the everyday collectors have begun to look elsewhere and bottom falls out of the market in 5-10 years time. But the quantity of cards produced per team per year by Select has just killed it for me.
I wish those of you finishing this year and going beyond good luck - and more importantly deep pockets.