Riding the wave vs cashing in while the going is good

1

1980bust

OzCardTrader
Messages
422
Location
Richmond, Victoria
Real Name
G
Ok - so most of you have probably noticed that the hot ticket at this moment is "vintage".

Seeing as just about all of my collection is "vintage" with the exception of a few Luka and Giannis cards, I'm seeing the dollar signs right now when I consider what a small piece of cardboard with grown men on it does for me, vs what the inflated amount of $$$ could.

I mean, for example I have a couple of Jordan Scoring Kings I paid around $100 AUD each for, as well as a 92/93 Beam Team of Jordan and Shaq that cost me less than $100 combined when I bought them. I love these cards but watching the prices at this point have me wondering.

Anybody have any stories of when they decided to SELL! SELL! SELL! due to hot market, and what was the tipping point?
 
I'm cashing out some of things I have to reduce risk but definitely holding some of the more hard to get stuff.

I'm also consolidating cards I'm not that really attached to into bigger cards I previously thought I could never get, with the intention of putting away for the kids, should the market still be around when I'm gone they can do what they like with what's there.
 
I was just having this chat the other day.

Honestly the hobby isn't what I enjoyed about it 10, 5 or even 2 years ago and have gone through periods recentlyof trying to keep it fun and interesting but am really struggling.
The petty dramas, the prices of cards, the quality of product being produced it has really been dragging me down and have been becoming less and less interested each day.
I think I am almost at the tipping point where I could cash out sell everything up and not have any regrets about doing so.
 
Don't get me wrong, it's the actual collecting that gives me the buzz. The challenge of chasing and building sets never gets old for me, especially as I'm still working on my 93/94 Finest Refractor set which I LOVE!

I mean, in the last few weeks I've also managed to track down 2 low-value cards that I've been on the hunt for to (almost) complete a set for nearly 3 YEARS! And I love that. I was looking for those Danny Manning and Otis Birdsong Retro Scoring Kings since some point in mid 2018, and they both came on eBay in the same week.

The $$$ in the hobby now don't really do anything for me other than getting me to this point. :lol: BUT the problem I have is that I've never been huge on grading cards. So I've got loads of cards I could sell in like 15 minutes - but they're all raw. And of course we all know that selling graded gets way more $$$, which is all I'd have in my eyes if I was cashing out.
 
kiwi_in_melb said:
I was just having this chat the other day.

Honestly the hobby isn't what I enjoyed about it 10, 5 or even 2 years ago and have gone through periods recentlyof trying to keep it fun and interesting but am really struggling.
The petty dramas, the prices of cards, the quality of product being produced it has really been dragging me down and have been becoming less and less interested each day.
I think I am almost at the tipping point where I could cash out sell everything up and not have any regrets about doing so.
Click to expand...

I've had this feeling a few times since 2009 when I came back into the hobby.

I have seen so many things pass through my hands that if I was in a better financial position at the time and didn't have to sell I would be a millionaire this year. I have regrets. lol

Take a break first and not sell anything, just watch games for the love of it, don't look at ebay, COMC and forum shit talk and see what happens in the next few years. Something will change with Panini and production, something will change in the grading industry with Nat Turner and involvement something will change in the world. Maybe we'll all be dead. haha
 
1980bust said:
Ok - so most of you have probably noticed that the hot ticket at this moment is "vintage".

Seeing as just about all of my collection is "vintage" with the exception of a few Luka and Giannis cards, I'm seeing the dollar signs right now when I consider what a small piece of cardboard with grown men on it does for me, vs what the inflated amount of $$$ could.

I mean, for example I have a couple of Jordan Scoring Kings I paid around $100 AUD each for, as well as a 92/93 Beam Team of Jordan and Shaq that cost me less than $100 combined when I bought them. I love these cards but watching the prices at this point have me wondering.

Anybody have any stories of when they decided to SELL! SELL! SELL! due to hot market, and what was the tipping point?
Click to expand...
Edited. I would strongly consider selling. I guess it depends heavily on your circumstances. If you have children that you would like to pass it onto and/or you are financially comfortable then hold. Otherwise I'd be taking some money off the table.
 
Last edited:
GarnettFan4Life said:
I've had this feeling a few times since 2009 when I came back into the hobby.

I have seen so many things pass through my hands that if I was in a better financial position at the time and didn't have to sell I would be a millionaire this year. I have regrets. lol

Take a break first and not sell anything, just watch games for the love of it, don't look at ebay, COMC and forum s*** talk and see what happens in the next few years. Something will change with Panini and production, something will change in the grading industry with Nat Turner and involvement something will change in the world. Maybe we'll all be dead. haha
Click to expand...
"Maybe we'll all be dead. haha". My money is on this. I have never been accused of being an optimist.
 
The Other Luka said:
Edited. I would strongly consider selling. I guess it depends heavily on your circumstances. If you have children that you would like to pass it onto and/or you are financially comfortable then hold. Otherwise I'd be taking some money off the table.
Click to expand...

No kids, but in the near future. I've got other investments that I see as long-term secure enough for the kids. Cards are just a perfect storm right now that can help with those investments.

Pretty financially comfortable. This is just a hobby to me, not an investment I'm banking on to make me rich. But I've got a core selection of cards I'll hold no questions that are booming as well lately. Which makes it hard because I have a sentimental attachment to them.

It's just the rest right now caught in a hot market that I only feel attached to in a "I collected these over a long time" way :)
 
If you are serious about selling you would be selling now. There's really not much else to it. I am not someone who pays any attention to the specifics of the trading card $ market so all the following is basic economics. Take it with a grain of salt if you want.

Has the market peaked? Who knows? What we do know is it is a heck of a lot stronger than it has ever been. Acting like it will continue to run this hot in perpetuity is, maybe not foolish, but certainly not the most likely scenario. (It would be like borrowing to finance a business and stress testing based of today's 2-3% interest rates given the long term average — in NZ — is 6.5%).

Trying to time when the market peaks to sell is a fool's errand. You will only know it has peaked after it has done so. Some people will get it exactly right and that will be much more good luck than good management. All you can really do is look to sell in a rising market (which we have). If you have bought when the market was weaker then you are winning. Don't wait for a falling market because then every other failing investor will be trying to get out what they can as well.

Will the market fall? Again, who knows? It has obviously surged on the back of unprecedented demand created by a global pandemic and never before seen investor interest. Will either of those things continue indefinitely in to the future? The safest bets point to no. Hence, a fall in the market. There is no guarantee of that fall but I would say it is more likely than not. (My business — completely non card/sport related — has experienced a similar surge in demand. This is great, but, I am also not blithely wandering along expecting the exact same scenario to play out in the future.)

The other question to ask is if there is a fall in the market which cards are most likely to be affected? Those are the ones you should look to move (first).

I was going to write a whole lot more but it seems long winded. The short version, I would be more comfortable that guys with established legacies (LeBron, Kobe) and even more importantly not having thousands of new cards produced each year (Jordan) may maintain current values than the current crop of newcomers whose careers have not yet reached the level their prices justify. These guys may justify that price but do you need to wait for them to do it if you can get the return s on your "investment" now.

Now, really to me this is about collecting though. I like my cards — even my non-PC ones! So even if you have a valuable card you don't have to just sell it because it may be less valuable in the future.
 
Dodgydave said:
The other question to ask is if there is a fall in the market which cards are most likely to be affected?
Click to expand...
Most definitely the new crop of cards will be affected.

Jordans, Kobes, Lebrons and other established stars will be there for the next wave, but the others are debatable.

If I had money, I know where I would be plonking it
 
Iron Clad Lou said:
Most definitely the new crop of cards will be affected.

Jordans, Kobes, Lebrons and other established stars will be there for the next wave, but the others are debatable.

If I had money, I know where I would be plonking it
Click to expand...
I think there are still undervalued areas of the market out there too — more so from a collecting standpoint than an "investing".

I just picked up an Olajuwon 1990-91 Star Auto for $39 USD. To me that is criminally undervalued.

It's his first auto. Its 30 years old. There were only 100 made. He did not have another auto card for 4 years. When I go and look up the prices an COMC for some of my Panini Olajuwon Autos they are 5 times that much and there are another dozen similar ones all also at the same sort of price.

If I was investing then the "Big 3" are great but as a collector I think a lot of the other 80s and 90s stars are bargains.
 
Iron Clad Lou said:
I think I am going to start completing those lower insert sets from those times.

I am sending a few of my Hakeems off for grading because I really like the inserts and would like the sets protected
Click to expand...

I've made a half-hearted attempt to complete some of them that I already have the Jordan for — all low end sadly!

Should probably make more effort but I have not been much of a set builder since good old rugby and league cards in the early to mid 90s.
 
Dodgydave said:
I've made a half-hearted attempt to complete some of them that I already have the Jordan for — all low end sadly!

Should probably make more effort but I have not been much of a set builder since good old rugby and league cards in the early to mid 90s.
Click to expand...
Same. And i guess that is the question. Do you wait until the crash to complete them or do it now?

I think the inserts and old sets are relatively unscathed if not Jordan.
 
I read a post the other day that a guy who had been collecting for a while had some really nice cards that he auctioned off and with that, paid off his house and all his debts and pretty much is set up for life now........ all by selling off a couple of his high end cards.

Now if someone said to me tomorrow, we will take some of your best cards and pay off your Mortgage and leave some extra in the bank for spending....... I'd ask where they want me to deliver them!

I think if you are looking to sell, now would be the time to start thinking about it. One comment that really stood out for me was from Brian Gray (Leaf CEO). He said that while he makes a heap of money on buying cards and reselling them later on......and while most of these have continued to go up in price..... he is never going to be the guy who holds too long....... he may buy a card for $1000 and sells it for $5000.....it may be worth $8000 now but he made a profit on it and and moved on to other stuff that will also make him money.

I think the cards that will take the biggest hit from people selling up and cashing out will be the more recent prizm's and optics etc....... seems a huge amount of these all seem to grade 9 or 10 and the supply is starting to equal out with the demand.

At the last show in Dallas I read that there was almost no interest in base Prizm PSA10's of Zion and Luka at current prices.

Interesting times ahead.
 
Certainly interesting perspectives.

I have a theory (completely of my own making) with graded cards that would apply to potentially 9.5s and more likely 9s. 10s would not really fit the bill as you need quite a bit of luck with them given (apparently) only a small number of cards come out of the packs as 10s.

With the changing nature of the hobby, more investors entering and more people see the potential financial returns that cards can offer there is little debate that the majority of card collectors are now adults and adults with an eye to the $ value of their cards.

This is very different to 50+ years ago where you hear stories of kids jamming Kareem or Wilt RCs in the spokes of their bike. It is very different to the early and mid 90s when I ran around with my cards wrapped up in rubber bands. They spent all day in my pocket and even went through a rugby practice or 10 there.

Even moving forward to the 2000s I used to love sorting my cards are displaying them in different ways. They went in and out of sleeves and pockets and to a large degree still do as that is what I enjoy. This would be heresy to so many people in today's hobby. Very few, possibly none, of my 90s cards that I got in that era would grade a 9 or higher.

Yes, there were adults collecting in those years and yes a lot of people looked after their cards a lot better than others. But, I think we can all agree it is a lot different from today when guys open packs with gloves and slide cards straight from the packet to top loaders and off for grading.

Even my brother who does not collect cards himself but gets them for my two nephews removes an "valuable" cards and tucks them away as the boys while "destroy" them by playing with them.

Given the much higher focus on maintaining card condition and higher number of cards getting graded I feel there is going to be a massive influx of cards at the 9 and maybe 9.5 mark.

Now obviously no-one is expecting modern cards to have the same distribution of grades as cards from 50+ years ago had. But it would not surprise me if cards of from even the last 12 or so months started to show a statistically significantly higher grade distribution than even those of just a few years ago. If people are slow to adjust to this then they may be paying a premium for a card that is not as rare as they think.
 
Iron Clad Lou said:
Same. And i guess that is the question. Do you wait until the crash to complete them or do it now?

I think the inserts and old sets are relatively unscathed if not Jordan.
Click to expand...
There's so many bargains to be had in 90s insert sets, it's almost endless. Getting the Jordan from the nice sets is always a bit costly, but if you start with Jordan then you can kinda reverse engineer the rest of the set which brings the fun back into it. Plus if you'd decide to give up, you haven't got all the worst cards on your hands :lol:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

MekaDragon
Vintage souvenir/collectable spoons for sale!
Replies
0
Views
123
MekaDragon
MekaDragon
O
The Cup
Replies
1
Views
338
ozsportscardcollector
O
araiee
Up and coming players in the nba, who have you got?
Replies
2
Views
601
GarnettFan4Life
GarnettFan4Life
Davebvd
Back on the forum
Replies
2
Views
238
Davebvd
Davebvd
skip20
Why are these NBA players on the same card?
Replies
13
Views
1,051
sgt_pepper
sgt_pepper
Back
Top Bottom