Quitting the hobby

P

pete23nba

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pete23nba, pete45nba
Wondering if I should start to quit the hobby now. Was originally planning to sell off my collection in about 10 years to fund retirement, but wondering if I should start quitting now. Case prices for new products is beyond ridiculous, especially with the typically low break returns. Panini has destroyed the hobby in my opinion. There was always a great mix of low, mid, high end product, but when even the cheapest hobby box sells for $300-$500 minimum with barely any hits, the system is broken.
Not sure if there are others out there that are facing the same situation as I am. Its a shame for me, as I have been collecting for almost 30 years, and have managed to amass quite a nice collection (in my opinion anyway).
 
I feel exactly the same as you Pete re: prices for boxes killing the hobby. Im only concentrating on my pc guys now. I used to chase base sets just for the fun of it, and now I cant even afford to chase Hoops which used to be a "kids" product...
 
If you need to, sell some now and keep some to sell in 10 years imo. Balances it out - maybe you can capitalise on some stuff you have and see some good returns now, especially if it’s stuff that doesn’t come to market much, and will also balance out any regret if for some reason 1) the market for stuff you have increases and you could have got more or 2) something happens, UD or someone else enters the hobby and provides competition and you might be lured back and wish you hadn’t moved everything.

it definitely is a weird time, some silly box prices but I’m having fun doing Kevin Garnett singles and graded again, getting a few cheap rookie stuff and retail boxes, doesn’t have to be National Treasures you’re getting into, if people stop bloody buying it and it doesn’t move, they’ll have to adjust RRP/MSRP.
 
I'm generally a set collector, so normally I get cases in order to complete sets, etc. But its ridiculous when something like a case of Prizm will put you back 5 figures. That's a huge chunk of a person's annual salary on cardboard, and I'd argue the risk isn't worth the reward, unlike the old Exquisite stuff.
 
GarnettFan4Life said:
If you need to, sell some now and keep some to sell in 10 years imo. Balances it out - maybe you can capitalise on some stuff you have and see some good returns now, especially if it’s stuff that doesn’t come to market much, and will also balance out any regret if for some reason 1) the market for stuff you have increases and you could have got more or 2) something happens, UD or someone else enters the hobby and provides competition and you might be lured back and wish you hadn’t moved everything.

it definitely is a weird time, some silly box prices but I’m having fun doing Kevin Garnett singles and graded again, getting a few cheap rookie stuff and retail boxes, doesn’t have to be National Treasures you’re getting into, if people stop bloody buying it and it doesn’t move, they’ll have to adjust RRP/MSRP.
Click to expand...

I don't actually need to sell (unless you ask my wife), but I wonder if I should bother trying to complete many of my near complete sets, or just sell off most of them. If prices keep going the way they are, then I can't justify the cost to get new season cardboard.
 
I think we can blame the prices of product over the last few years on the rookie crops - curry, griffin, harden, Davis, kyrie, lillard, Greek-freak, Tatum, fox, doncic, Zion and morant. This year particular has been nuts because of Zion, morant, Barrett, herro and nunn.

As to getting money out of a box... Imo, if a buyers focus is more about financial return than enjoyment of the hobby then it's no longer a hobby for them - it's a job.
 
taffster74 said:
I think we can blame the prices of product over the last few years on the rookie crops - curry, griffin, harden, Davis, kyrie, lillard, Greek-freak, Tatum, fox, doncic, Zion and morant. This year particular has been nuts because of Zion, morant, Barrett, herro and nunn.

As to getting money out of a box... Imo, if a buyers focus is more about financial return than enjoyment of the hobby then it's no longer a hobby for them - it's a job.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's down to the rookies. I believe it is just greed on Panini's part, and that applies to anything in life when there is a monopoly. In recent years, Revolution is what I buy - this year on release, it was about $2500-$3000USD per case, it is now about $6000. And this is a mid tier product. 2003-04 SP Authentic came out about $1000USD per case, and this was with the most hyped rookie of all-time. I collect because I love the hobby, but if you outlay a certain amount you want to at least have a chance of getting something of value. With the SP Authentic example, you could at least have a chance of getting something great, like MJ, LBJ, Kobe, or even Carmelo back then. Even with the best possible pulls in Revolution, you still wouldn't get value equivalent to the outlay (Kobe/Zion autos are anywhere between $600-$1000USD, with the parallel versions probably x2).

This, of course, is just my personal opinion on the matter, and I respect anyone elses's opinion that differs from mine.
 
pete23nba said:
I don't think it's down to the rookies. I believe it is just greed on Panini's part, and that applies to anything in life when there is a monopoly. In recent years, Revolution is what I buy - this year on release, it was about $2500-$3000USD per case, it is now about $6000. And this is a mid tier product. 2003-04 SP Authentic came out about $1000USD per case, and this was with the most hyped rookie of all-time. I collect because I love the hobby, but if you outlay a certain amount you want to at least have a chance of getting something of value. With the SP Authentic example, you could at least have a chance of getting something great, like MJ, LBJ, Kobe, or even Carmelo back then. Even with the best possible pulls in Revolution, you still wouldn't get value equivalent to the outlay (Kobe/Zion autos are anywhere between $600-$1000USD, with the parallel versions probably x2).

This, of course, is just my personal opinion on the matter, and I respect anyone elses's opinion that differs from mine.
Click to expand...
You have made a lot of sense in what you say.The 2 words that stand out for me ,are greed and Panini.They seem to go hand in hand.This is only my opinion.
 
It's been a perfect storm for Panini - getting the sole NBA rights, a few collectors hanging in along with a few new collectors, great rookie crops, and then covid - hundreds of thousands of people with a little bit extra time on their hands and maybe looking for something for them and their kids , who are home from school, to do - feeling a bit of nostalgia, NBA at the forefront of the league shutdowns and BLM movement and boom - BOOM.

You also then had them (Panini) seeing what happened with the recommended retail prices after they were sold and how much money was made off box breaks and resellers and they just said screw it, we'll do dutch auction and make more money. It's one big circle/cycle and people not only loving cards again, but some in other countries looking to do it to make extra money since they are out of work. crazy times.
 
@GarnettFan4Life has it right.

This is demand side pushed not supply. Panini is just along for the ride. They can put whatever prices they want on product but it requires a customer to actually pay that price. Their legal obligation is to their shareholders to maximise returns not to keep any individual collector happy.

Of course, there is a valid argument that burning long standing collectors by cutting them out in favour of the recent arrivals spending big is not a good long term strategy. However, you won’t find many companies who turn down a chance to maximise current profits...

The current crop of rookies/young players may be helping drive the prices but if the are it is stupid. Doncic is so far the only guy who looks like a potentially generational talent. The rest all have plenty of potential but just as many flaws as any other crop of young guys!
 
Dodgydave said:
@GarnettFan4Life has it right.

This is demand side pushed not supply. Panini is just along for the ride. They can put whatever prices they want on product but it requires a customer to actually pay that price. Their legal obligation is to their shareholders to maximise returns not to keep any individual collector happy.

Of course, there is a valid argument that burning long standing collectors by cutting them out in favour of the recent arrivals spending big is not a good long term strategy. However, you won’t find many companies who turn down a chance to maximise current profits...

The current crop of rookies/young players may be helping drive the prices but if the are it is stupid. Doncic is so far the only guy who looks like a potentially generational talent. The rest all have plenty of potential but just as many flaws as any other crop of young guys!
Click to expand...


Facts here - I see a lot of fires in the distance when I get the binoculars out - and those are bridges being burnt......
These were the people buying products, breaking products, taking all the compulsory allocations otherwise it would hurt your chance of getting other panini releases, waiting the YEARS for redemptions......good financially for them but reputation-wise? destructive and inflammatory.
 
I haven't bought anything that's not already out of the pack since I was a kid in the 90s, so the prices for boxes etc don't worry me whatsoever - each to their own. I also only collect very few certain sets, and mainly only for aesthetics and nostalgia anyway. For me, even spending $100 on a single card is a big deal.

I've also sold probably 90% of my collection over the last couple of years, simply to reduce the number of cards I have. Sure, I've sold some cards that are now skyrocketing in value, but that's just how it goes. I think I sold a group of 4 Kobe Ultra Rcs for like $9 total, and a PSA 9 Jordan Finest 94 for $45, but whatever. I've also seen a few PC things I've bought cheap increase by hundreds of % in value at the same time.

What's ruining it for me is this absolutely mental obsession with grading EVERYTHING. For cards 20+ years old I get it when you want preservation, but even then I'd rather go raw. Slabs are just so awkward and ugly, and people chase a printed number harder than they chase the card itself now.

But seeing BRAND NEW cards graded 9s & 10s numbering tens of thousands AND selling for thousands of dollars each just shows that it's a high-stakes gamble right now, and none of these idiots paying this amount of money for BASE cards want to be left holding the ball when the game stops. It's gonna crash - hard. Unfortunately this stuff has a knock-on effect throughout the rest of the market.
 
Dodgydave said:
The current crop of rookies/young players may be helping drive the prices but if the are it is stupid. Doncic is so far the only guy who looks like a potentially generational talent. The rest all have plenty of potential but just as many flaws as any other crop of young guys!
Click to expand...

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the hype of young talent... Probably best summed up in Luka, Tatum, Zion, Ja standard rookie cards selling for more than HOF on-card autos. I'm in a FB group where I saw a beautiful on-card Shaq auto sell for $200 something and I was thinking that was a bargain compared to some of those young 'stars' I've mentioned... Even though Shaq is widely considered a top 10 player all-time and half these guys haven't made an All-Star team yet...

How does this 'investment' strategy work? Are the prices going to keep rising with each achievement a player makes? Or will the market get to a point where they realise a player is plateauing and then the prices start coming down?

For example: I'm a Heat fan so I've been picking up a few Tyler Herro cards... He's played really great this season and in my opinion he's likely to be a multiple time All-Star down the track (maybe even All-NBA if he develops his defense)... But at the same time the jury is still out! He could be playing near his ceiling, and really only time will tell. So I've been hesitant to pick up any Tyler cards more than $50 because I don't want to overpay for a rookie who might hit his ceiling in 3 years time and then his cards lose all their value... And it's not that I'm in it necessarily to make money, but I'd prefer my cards to have some decent re-sale value when I choose to move them on.

If the prices are only going to keep going up if the player keeps delivering on talent... Then some people are going to lose a lot of money. As you said, Doncic is the only one who looks like a potentially generational talent... We've already seen glimpses and he could go down as a top 10-20 all-time player if things work out for him. I'd argue Tatum is probably a top 20-25 talent as well... But that might be it.
 
jimboiitmac said:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around the hype of young talent... Probably best summed up in Luka, Tatum, Zion, Ja standard rookie cards selling for more than HOF on-card autos. I'm in a FB group where I saw a beautiful on-card Shaq auto sell for $200 something and I was thinking that was a bargain compared to some of those young 'stars' I've mentioned... Even though Shaq is widely considered a top 10 player all-time and half these guys haven't made an All-Star team yet...

How does this 'investment' strategy work? Are the prices going to keep rising with each achievement a player makes? Or will the market get to a point where they realise a player is plateauing and then the prices start coming down?

For example: I'm a Heat fan so I've been picking up a few Tyler Herro cards... He's played really great this season and in my opinion he's likely to be a multiple time All-Star down the track (maybe even All-NBA if he develops his defense)... But at the same time the jury is still out! He could be playing near his ceiling, and really only time will tell. So I've been hesitant to pick up any Tyler cards more than $50 because I don't want to overpay for a rookie who might hit his ceiling in 3 years time and then his cards lose all their value... And it's not that I'm in it necessarily to make money, but I'd prefer my cards to have some decent re-sale value when I choose to move them on.

If the prices are only going to keep going up if the player keeps delivering on talent... Then some people are going to lose a lot of money. As you said, Doncic is the only one who looks like a potentially generational talent... We've already seen glimpses and he could go down as a top 10-20 all-time player if things work out for him. I'd argue Tatum is probably a top 20-25 talent as well... But that might be it.
Click to expand...

Tyler is a great example. His cards have been on fire and some of the amounts his cards have been selling for have been crazy. It really does seem like the market, the way it is going, is unsustainable, and will collapse at some point.
 
pete23nba said:
Tyler is a great example. His cards have been on fire and some of the amounts his cards have been selling for have been crazy. It really does seem like the market, the way it is going, is unsustainable, and will collapse at some point.
Click to expand...

Good luck to a Heat fan like me picking up any Tyler's or Bam's over the next while 😂
 
Seems like there has been so much over reaction.

If you stick with just the Heat theme look at Nunn. Everyone was extolling him as part of this "amazing rookie class" and he is a nice story but is just not that good. He was a place holder to minimise the chances Dragic got hurt.

Now games are serious he can't get off the bench.

Doesn't mean he can't be a perfecrly cromulent player but he is really not someone to get excited about from an "investing" point of view.
 
its all hype. almost all of these cards will come down drastically over time...its the influx of new collectors looking to turn the hobby into an investment, which historically has only ever worked with very FEW cards. not to say you cant make bank during the hype stage, but at some point even the luka's will drop big and like someone else said he's really the only generational player to appear in these hyped rookies. someone else mentioned how HOF on card autos are relatively cheap (compared to the new gen), which is a look into the future i believe.
i avoided boxes these last two seasons and just bought single packs. you dont waste as much money and youve got a pretty good chance of hitting one of the hyped RC's which you can turn around and sell for ridiculous prices.
 
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