State of the Hobby

[GarnettFan4Life]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-23/which-target-stores-are-set-to-close-or-become-kmart/12279722

 

[TAB1980]

Hi guys

Been away from the hobby for about 7 years now and have just started taking a look around again.

Too be honest, what got me interested was that i received 3 redemption packages for my pc collection. Now, i can't even remember sensing these redemptions off and if i did, it would have been 7 years ago!

So... i started having a look around...

WTF is going on? Box prices are completely mental!!! Individual card values are completely insane! $30,000 Zion's? Seriously!

There is no way in my mind that this can be sustainable. Those that are willing to pay these crazy prices surely aren't going to be able to do so forever. In the meantime, the average collector is becoming alienated from being able to enjoy the hobby for what it should be. Set collectors are surely being hit hard as well.

This is now a hobby based on greed and nothing else. Like i said, it's unsustainable in my mind and i wouldn't be at all surprised if it crashes as a result.

What's even more dumbfounding for me is that the quality isn't even that great these days. Most products are a variation of the same thing.... Prizm (which i never really liked). This whole different colours crap of the same card is pretty boring as far as i'm concerned.

I think for the time being, i might just turn my attention to AFL stuff. Not that i'm overly keen on that either.

It's funny how NBA and AFL are indentical in a sense that they are both monopoly driven markets. Though aside from that, they are pretty much exactly opposite in every way.

Panini is just churning out different versions of the same crap and charging an absolute mint for it whereas Select just release the same, cheap, unimaginative garbage every year, almost solely aimed and kids and seem to have no interest in doing anything else to attract new customers.

I'm deeply saddened by what i have seen over the past few days on ebay etc and i doubt i can see myself coming back to the hobby for now in any major way. I will probably still hang around here but that's about all.

I would suggest if you've got any massive hits recently that you aren't emotionally connected to in any major way, sell now while you can!

Oh, and $40 for one packet of Hoops?

 

[Dodgydave]

I pretty much agree with you on most points but I don’t necessarily agree the changes are “ruining the hobby”

More so I believe as a true collector you just have to adapt to ride out the current climate.

As an NBA collector prices for boxes/packs are extreme so I have not opened a pack of cards since January. And honestly for the same reasons you state why would I? (Unless you have got some of the cheap preorder packs from EB or the like.)

$500 for Hoops to get $20 of cards? $1000 for Prizm to get a rehash of almost identical looking cards to last year and about 40 slightly different colour parallels? Pass.

Same goes for collecting most of today’s stars especially the rookies/sophs. Thousands of $ for 20 games of Williamson. Pass. Same for Doncic who at least has proven he is good and can stay on court, but, still a pass for me.

I find the key is to concentrate on a PC. As long as you aren’t chasing a flavour of the moment setplayer (Herro, cough, cough) or one of the top current stars I find there are thousands of bargains out there.

I PC Olajuwon and find for between 10 and 50 US cents I can pick up so many rare release cards from the 90s plus many of the cool inserts for less than a few dollars. I could buy a box of Prizm or one Williamson RC or I could buy literally 1000 Olajuwons for the same price. That makes me very happy.

As you say the current pricing is unsustainable on many cards - so don’t buy those cards! There are many others that are still well priced.

I have no knowledge of the AFL market but again that may be a very wise choice if your NBA choices are priced out and/or you have a craving for opening some packs/boxes.

All the best for your return to the hobby and don’t let the current state turn you off - just look for the opportunities rather than being a sheep and buying what everyone else is!

 

[1980bust]

I find the key is to concentrate on a PC. As long as you aren’t chasing a flavour of the moment setplayer (Herro, cough, cough) or one of the top current stars I find there are thousands of bargains out there.

All the best for your return to the hobby and don’t let the current state turn you off - just look for the opportunities rather than being a sheep and buying what everyone else is!

This is the best advice and lets you keep the fun of actually collecting without thinking only of the $$$, which is of course a huge bummer.

 

[Gr3mlin]

Panini is just churning out different versions of the same crap and charging an absolute mint for it whereas Select just release the same, cheap, unimaginative garbage every year, almost solely aimed and kids and seem to have no interest in doing anything else to attract new customers.

Very rarely do I defend Select, but I feel like your take on them is horribly wrong.

Their customer base has increased at least 25% in the last two years. Supremacy was a massive hit and changed the entire market and how releases are conducted.

You really think sets like Dominance and Supremacy are cheap and aimed at kids?

If you think they are garbage what would you like to see since you consider the NBA style also terrible?

 

[TAB1980]

Very rarely do I defend Select, but I feel like your take on them is horribly wrong.

Their customer base has increased at least 25% in the last two years. Supremacy was a massive hit and changed the entire market and how releases are conducted.

You really think sets like Dominance and Supremacy are cheap and aimed at kids?

If you think they are garbage what would you like to see since you consider the NBA style also terrible?

They're all just very basic in terms of quality and the technologies used. Especially the base cards. They just look like different variations of the same thing.

I'd like to see something that is similar to what we see with US sports. Better looking cards and more variety. Also, lower print runs on some sub sets as well. I like having the /10's and /25's etc even 1/1's would be exciting.

I want to see more auto's and more memorabilia cards.

Surely with the popularity and exitement we see with Dominance that i am not alone.

I want something where i can pay more for less because i'm paying for quality. I don't need draws and draws full of worthless base cards.

I want something where there are 10 cards or so in a box that contains a mix of auto's, memorabilia, short print inserts and a few base @ somewhere around $200 - $300.

 

[Gr3mlin]

They're all just very basic in terms of quality and the technologies used. Especially the base cards. They just look like different variations of the same thing.

Actually agree with you with the low end base cards, can do with a lot of improvement in a general sense.

I'd like to see something that is similar to what we see with US sports. Better looking cards and more variety. Also, lower print runs on some sub sets as well. I like having the /10's and /25's etc even 1/1's would be exciting.

I hope will never happen and I think Select have said the same to a degree, the customer market is basically on each end of the spectrum here. US markets as far as I know is mainly made up of individual player PCs where AFL is made up vastly of team and master set collectors. Doing /10s and 1/1s would only alienate the vast majority of the market. Take me for a example, I am a WCE set collector and more then likely if they ever released a /10 or 1/1 it would push me out of collecting as the odds are I would never be in a position to finish my set.

Even /25 from Supremacy was starting to edge out some people in their ability to finish a set especially with the growth in collectors in the last year or so.

I want to see more auto's and more memorabilia cards.

I think autos are at that perfect point at the moment, I also think it's at it's limit given Select do not want go down the route of signed stickers and I fully agree with them in not doing so. Memorabilia cards are very hard and costly to produce for Select given how smaller their operation is compared to other markets.

They also have to acquire the memorabilia through the same channels as the general public making it a lot more expensive to obtain. They also mentioned previously they want to keep patch cards a more rarity item.

Surely with the popularity and exitement we see with Dominance that i am not alone.

On most of your opinions, I think you are in the vast minority and that's because I think you are applying US sports card market markers to a market that while sells the same thing (Sports cards) the customer base is completely different in both size and selling points.

I want something where i can pay more for less because i'm paying for quality. I don't need draws and draws full of worthless base cards.

I want something where there are 10 cards or so in a box that contains a mix of auto's, memorabilia, short print inserts and a few base @ somewhere around $200 - $300.

Yeah don't see that happening with the way our market is, maybe 20-30 years down the track.

 

[TAB1980]

Actually agree with you with the low end base cards, can do with a lot of improvement in a general sense.



I hope will never happen and I think Select have said the same to a degree, the customer market is basically on each end of the spectrum here. US markets as far as I know is mainly made up of individual player PCs where AFL is made up vastly of team and master set collectors. Doing /10s and 1/1s would only alienate the vast majority of the market. Take me for a example, I am a WCE set collector and more then likely if they ever released a /10 or 1/1 it would push me out of collecting as the odds are I would never be in a position to finish my set.

Even /25 from Supremacy was starting to edge out some people in their ability to finish a set especially with the growth in collectors in the last year or so.



I think autos are at that perfect point at the moment, I also think it's at it's limit given Select do not want go down the route of signed stickers and I fully agree with them in not doing so. Memorabilia cards are very hard and costly to produce for Select given how smaller their operation is compared to other markets.

They also have to acquire the memorabilia through the same channels as the general public making it a lot more expensive to obtain. They also mentioned previously they want to keep patch cards a more rarity item.



On most of your opinions, I think you are in the vast minority and that's because I think you are applying US sports card market markers to a market that while sells the same thing (Sports cards) the customer base is completely different in both size and selling points.




Yeah don't see that happening with the way our market is, maybe 20-30 years down the track.

You seem to know a lot....

Select sounds like a company with no competition... shame really.

Hopefully they will get challenged at some point and if they do, given their attitude, they won't survive.

 

[Dodgydave]

Not trying to be critical @TAB1980 but it sounds like you have taken a lot of the ideas that have lead NBA collecting to a place you don’t like and suggest they should be applied to AFL.

 

[TAB1980]

Not trying to be critical @TAB1980 but it sounds like you have taken a lot of the ideas that have lead NBA collecting to a place you don’t like and suggest they should be applied to AFL.

The only thing i don't like right now with NBA collecting is the massively inflated prices. Given AFL has a much smaller audience, although passionate, i doubt the same would happen.

 

[TAB1980]

Anyway, this is a Basketball board...

I've said more than i'd planned about the AFL side of things

 

[Gr3mlin]

The only thing i don't like right now with NBA collecting is the massively inflated prices. Given AFL has a much smaller audience, although passionate, i doubt the same would happen.

Sorry to say it's already happening, even the price difference between this year's dominance and last year's is huge.

 

[Billyhoyle]

Current market (yeah lots of factors but here's a personal experience!)

This card is my old one.

The exact card resold on goldin today

So:
15/1/22 I won in a razz for $1200

2/5/22 I sold on goldin for $840 including fees

6/11/22 It resold on goldin for $330 including fees

 

[Lippo]

It was carnage on Goldin today, modern stuff seems to be struggling and quite a few auctions without any bids.

Having said that, still got beat on all the stuff I was bidding on

 

[Billyhoyle]

It was carnage on Goldin today, modern stuff seems to be struggling and quite a few auctions without any bids.

Having said that, still got beat on all the stuff I was bidding on

yeah I definitely snuck a couple of cheapies which was nice

 

[1980bust]

How's everyone's hobby experience these days? Buying? Selling? Neither?

I'm buying about 30% of what I was a year ago - the lower prices and less competition is nice.

That said, I'm selling waaaay more than I'm buying. Accord to my eBay stats, I've sold over $12k worth of cards in the last 90 days. Probably another $1k on COMC.

Taken a few Ls, but had some big Ws too. Would say I've put around $4k of that back into cards.

But whatever - buy/sell in the same market. The most expensive card I've ever bought (Zion One and One rc) is probably taking a massive L right now though

Now just focusing on a few key cards/sets and ignoring everything else. Down to about 180 total cards in the collection, with the goal of getting to around 100 by the end of the year.

 

[GarnettFan4Life]

Buying/selling/trading the same as a year ago pretty much here. Buying more than selling easily in the last 2 hrs.

 

[TheCardExperience]

Not really selling at all but having an absolute blast buying. Everything just seems like a bargain now (that's if buying with the intention not to resell).

 

[Iron Clad Lou]

I can't give away cards atm. Just not selling anything.

I have stopped buying breaks and am focusing on just opening baseball boxes and buying baseball cards

 

[1980bust]

I can't give away cards atm. Just not selling anything.

I have stopped buying breaks and am focusing on just opening baseball boxes and buying baseball cards

I had stuff sit in my COMC account for months not moving, no matter what discount I put on it. 50, 60, 70% - nothing moved until I did a port sale and got rid of everything at a decent loss. Just wanted to move them and put any funds into something else.

Some stuff sits on eBay for ages, and I just change prices, free/paid shipping, send offers ASAP. Probably got another 50 or so cards to send to COMC, since my theory is US sellers are weird about shipping internationally, so I assume buyers are the same. So I want those 50 cards into their local market haha